Typhoon Dolphin, a former super typhoon with winds that topped 150 mph, is tracking toward a projected landfall in eastern China, threatening Shanghai with damaging winds and flash flooding.
The storm has weakened from its peak Category 4 equivalent strength but still packs Category 3 hurricane-force winds as it churns across the Western Pacific. The FOX Forecast Center projects Dolphin will approach Japan's Ryukyu Islands by Thursday and Friday at Category 2 intensity before making landfall in China's Zhejiang Province by Monday morning as a Category 1 equivalent storm. Shanghai, one of the world's largest cities, sits squarely in the forecast cone for tropical storm-force winds and localized flash flooding.
The storm's sheer size and duration have already generated remarkable energy. Dolphin alone has produced an Accumulated Cyclone Energy value above 43, FOX Weather reported. ACE measures a storm's total wind energy over its lifetime, a single number that captures both intensity and longevity. For context, the entire Western Pacific basin has racked up an ACE of 165.6 so far this season. The typical average for this point in the year is roughly 81.4.
That 165.6 figure is not just above average. It clears the threshold the FOX Forecast Center uses to classify a season as "extremely active", anything above 159.6. A normal season falls between 73 and 126. An above-normal season runs from 126.1 to 159.6. A below-normal season registers under 73.
Put plainly: the Western Pacific has already packed more than twice the typical storm energy into this season, and Dolphin is a major contributor. The storm reached super typhoon status, winds exceeding 150 mph, before gradually weakening on its westward track.
The pattern fits a broader trend. El Niño has been marching toward historic strength, and its effects cut in opposite directions across the two great ocean basins. Warmer waters and favorable wind patterns in the Pacific feed stronger and more frequent storms. In the Atlantic, El Niño tends to suppress hurricane development, a dynamic that has kept that basin unusually quiet.
The projected path takes Dolphin northwest toward the Ryukyu Islands, a Japanese archipelago stretching between Taiwan and the Japanese mainland. The FOX Forecast Center expects the typhoon to pass near those islands Thursday into Friday as a Category 2 equivalent system.
From there, the storm is forecast to continue northwest and weaken further before making landfall in Zhejiang Province on China's eastern coast by Monday morning. Even at Category 1 strength, a typhoon making landfall in one of China's most densely populated coastal regions carries serious flood and wind risk.
Shanghai, which sits just north of Zhejiang Province, faces the prospect of tropical storm-force winds and local flash flooding. The city is home to more than 24 million people and serves as China's financial capital, any significant disruption there carries economic consequences well beyond the immediate storm damage.
Meanwhile, the forces shaping this year's hurricane season extend across the entire Pacific basin. Saharan dust and wind shear have joined El Niño in keeping the Atlantic remarkably quiet, even as the Pacific churns out one powerful system after another.
Dolphin is not the only system drawing attention. The FOX Forecast Center has flagged two new areas to watch in the Pacific basin, one near Mexico and one near Hawaii. Both carry low development chances over the next week, but forecast models suggest potential tropical storm activity near Hawaii in roughly nine to ten days.
That timeline matters. Hawaii sits in a part of the Pacific that rarely sees direct tropical impacts, but when storms do develop nearby, the islands have limited infrastructure to absorb a hit. The surging Eastern Pacific season has already produced notable storms, and any additional development near Hawaii would underscore just how active this basin has become.
For now, both watch areas remain in the earliest stages of monitoring. But the fact that forecasters are already tracking multiple zones of potential development, while a major typhoon barrels toward one of the world's most populated coastlines, speaks to the scale of this season's Pacific activity.
The contrast between the two basins could hardly be sharper. Colorado State University's latest Atlantic forecast keeps the odds of a major hurricane landfall low, and NOAA has cut its own Atlantic hurricane forecast as El Niño builds toward potentially record-setting levels. Atlantic ACE remains subdued. The Western Pacific, by every available measure, is running hot.
Bryan Norcross, a FOX Weather hurricane specialist, and meteorologist Bob Van Dillen have been breaking down the seasonal data, including Colorado State University's exclusive analysis. The university's forecast has drawn attention for maintaining low major hurricane landfall probabilities in the Atlantic, a call that looks increasingly well-supported as the season progresses with minimal Atlantic activity.
None of that quiet extends to the Pacific. Early-season tropical development in the Eastern Pacific signaled what was coming, and Typhoon Dolphin has delivered on the forecast in dramatic fashion, a super typhoon that generated more cyclone energy by itself than many full Atlantic seasons produce.
The people of Zhejiang Province and Shanghai now wait to see whether Dolphin weakens faster than projected or holds its strength into landfall. Either way, the Western Pacific has already written its story for this season: twice the normal energy, and more storms still forming.
Nature does not care about forecasting models or seasonal averages. It cares about warm water and favorable winds, and the Pacific has both in abundance.
