An unusually active Eastern Pacific is juggling three named tropical systems at once, two of them major hurricanes on a westward track toward Hawaii, while Tropical Storm Marie pushes moisture inland toward Arizona and possibly California.
Hurricane Karina and Hurricane Lowell both sat at Category 4 intensity as of August 31, 2026, a rare double threat that forecasters attribute to an ongoing El Niño pattern supercharging the Pacific basin. Lowell underwent rapid intensification late Tuesday night, jumping from hurricane status, which it had only reached early that same morning, to major hurricane strength in a matter of hours, the FOX Forecast Center reported.
Karina, meanwhile, was intensifying over open eastern Pacific waters. Both storms were tracking generally westward, putting Hawaii in the conversation for potential impacts later in the forecast window, though the FOX Forecast Center cautioned that "there are no immediate threats, but that could certainly change."
The third system, Tropical Storm Marie, posed a more immediate concern for the continental United States. Churning off the southwestern coast of Mexico, Marie was expected to pull northward by the end of the week, pumping tropical moisture toward the U.S. Southwest. Forecasters flagged a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk for southern Arizona on Friday, with Phoenix and Tucson squarely in the crosshairs.
The FOX Forecast Center was also monitoring whether Marie's moisture plume would track into California early the following week, a development that could bring heavy rain to a state that has swung between drought and deluge in recent years.
Lowell's overnight leap to Category 4 stood out even in a season that has already produced notable Eastern Pacific hurricanes. The storm went from newly minted hurricane early Tuesday morning to major hurricane status by late Tuesday night, a pace that qualifies as rapid intensification, a phenomenon in which a storm's maximum sustained winds increase dramatically in a short window.
Forecast models were showing some disagreement on Lowell's exact track, particularly around how sharply the storm would curve west-northwest. That uncertainty matters because it determines whether Lowell stays over open water or edges close enough to Hawaii to deliver damaging surf, wind, or rain.
Karina's track carried similar ambiguity. The interaction between two major hurricanes operating in the same ocean basin can complicate forecasting, as each storm's outflow and steering currents influence the other. Forecasters acknowledged that this dynamic was adding uncertainty to their projections.
The ongoing El Niño pattern has been the engine behind the Eastern Pacific's hyperactive season. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific provide the heat energy that tropical systems need to form and intensify. The same pattern tends to increase wind shear over the Atlantic, which tears apart storms before they can organize, a dynamic that has kept the Atlantic hurricane season unusually quiet by comparison.
That lopsided activity has been a defining feature of the 2026 season. While Gulf Coast and East Coast communities have largely been spared, the Pacific has produced storm after storm, and the simultaneous presence of two Category 4 hurricanes underscores just how charged the basin remains.
The National Hurricane Center added another item to the watch list on August 31, highlighting a new area of potential development off the southwestern coast of Mexico. The agency gave it a 20 percent chance of development over the next seven days and a near-zero chance over the next two days, warning that an area of low pressure could form over the weekend with gradual development possible as early as the following week.
If that disturbance organizes, it would mark yet another system emerging from the same stretch of warm Pacific water that has already produced Marie, Karina, and Lowell. Earlier this season, Invest 94E drew attention as El Niño tightened its grip on tropical development in the region.
The Pacific was not the only basin demanding attention. Tropical Storm Edouard formed Monday in the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall near Johnson Bayou, Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, Newsmax reported. The storm posed its greatest threat through rainfall rather than wind, with forecasters anticipating three to six inches of rain along the Texas coast and up to nine inches in some upper coast areas.
Brad Reinhart, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, warned of the flood risk:
"That rainfall could produce some flash flooding and river flooding."
Texas officials projected confidence ahead of the storm's arrival. Orlando Alanis of the Texas Division of Emergency Management told reporters that crews had been clearing dry vegetation to prevent lightning-sparked fires and that the state was ready for whatever Edouard delivered.
"This is our first big storm of the season, and I'll tell you, Texas is prepared."
Edouard had been centered roughly 85 miles southeast of Cameron, Louisiana, and 115 miles southeast of Port Arthur, Texas, early Tuesday, moving west-northwest at 7 mph, the New York Post reported. Forecasters warned that some areas could see rainfall rates exceeding four inches per hour.
The Gulf storm arrived as the Pacific was already demanding the National Hurricane Center's full attention. Breitbart noted that Tropical Storm Lowell was tracking toward Hawaii with 65 mph winds and could rapidly intensify into a hurricane, while Karina had already reached Category 4 with 140 mph winds, though Karina posed no immediate land threat at that point.
For residents of Phoenix and Tucson, the immediate concern was Marie's moisture. A Level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk on Friday meant the kind of sudden, dangerous flooding that desert cities handle poorly, water rushing through washes and low-lying roads with little warning. The quiet Atlantic season has meant that much of the country's storm attention has been directed elsewhere, but the Southwest was about to feel the Pacific's reach firsthand.
Hawaii's situation was less certain but potentially more serious. Two Category 4 hurricanes tracking westward put the islands in a zone of elevated risk, even if current models showed no immediate threat. Hawaii's geography, isolated in the central Pacific with limited evacuation options, makes any approaching major hurricane a high-stakes event. Forecasters were watching the steering patterns closely, particularly high-pressure ridges that would determine whether Karina and Lowell curved away from the islands or kept bearing down.
The broader picture was one of a Pacific basin running hot. El Niño had been strangling Atlantic development all season while feeding the Eastern Pacific a steady diet of warm water and low wind shear. Three named storms active simultaneously, two of them major hurricanes, and a fourth potential system already on the radar, that is the kind of workload that stretches forecasting resources and public attention alike.
When the Pacific runs this hot and the threats stack up this fast, the margin for complacency shrinks to nothing, and the people who live in the path of these storms deserve the same urgency the Atlantic usually commands.
AP News reported that the simultaneous Gulf and Pacific activity reflected a broader period of elevated tropical development, with multiple basins producing organized systems at the same time. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott identified flooding as the biggest threat from Edouard and confirmed that preparedness measures were underway.
Three active Pacific storms, a Gulf Coast landfall, and a new area to watch, and the peak of hurricane season is still ahead. Preparedness is not a luxury when the ocean is this angry. It is the bare minimum.
