NOAA lowered its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook for the second time, giving the season a 75 percent chance of finishing below average as a potentially historic El Niño reshapes conditions across the tropics.
The agency's final seasonal forecast, released Thursday, now calls for 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, and 0 to 2 major hurricanes, Category 3 or stronger. Every number dropped from the initial outlook NOAA issued in late May, which projected 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. The probability of a below-average season jumped from 55 percent to 75 percent.
An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA's updated numbers put 2026 well below every one of those benchmarks.
The driving force behind the downgrade is a rapidly strengthening El Niño, the climate pattern defined by above-average water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Those warmer waters shift the subtropical jet stream, pushing it across the Caribbean and into the Atlantic. The stronger jet stream creates wind shear that tears apart developing tropical systems before they can organize into hurricanes.
And this El Niño is not ordinary. Water temperatures in the El Niño monitoring zone already sit 2.07 degrees Celsius above average. A "Super El Niño" requires readings of at least 2 degrees Celsius above average for three consecutive months. The current event has already crossed that line, and NOAA's July update warned it could reach historically strong conditions between October and December, with a 97 percent chance of persisting through spring 2027.
Some NOAA computer forecast models suggest this El Niño could become the strongest event since record keeping began in 1950. Current water temperatures in the El Niño zone are running higher than they were at the same point during the Super El Niño events of 2015, 1997, 1991, and 1982, the four strongest on record.
NOAA itself acknowledged the uncharted territory. The agency cautioned that a record-breaking event "could have different impacts than those traditionally observed as opposed to similar impacts with greater intensity." In plain terms, forecasters are not entirely sure what a Super El Niño of this magnitude will do, because nothing in the modern record matches it.
The El Niño's march toward historic strength has been visible for months. Its suppressive effect on Atlantic tropical activity has already shown up in the 2026 season, which has produced only two named storms so far, Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha, both of which formed in the Gulf of Mexico. NOAA's updated forecast ranges include those two storms in the count.
NOAA is not alone in dialing back expectations. Colorado State University, which pioneered early-season hurricane forecasts starting in 1984, released its own August outlook on Wednesday. CSU projected 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane, numbers that track closely with NOAA's reduced ranges.
The convergence between the two most-watched seasonal forecasts reinforces the same conclusion: El Niño is choking off the Atlantic's ability to produce storms. When Colorado State slashed its own forecast earlier this year, the reasoning pointed to the same Pacific warming trend now dominating NOAA's outlook.
If the season does finish below average, NOAA noted it "would mark only the second season in the last decade without above-normal activity." That statistic underscores how unusual a quiet year has become. The Atlantic has run hot for years, and a genuine lull stands out.
Even with a suppressed season, forecasters warn against complacency. The FOX Forecast Center noted that "homegrown" tropical systems, storms that develop close to the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast coast rather than crossing the open Atlantic, tend to be weaker and shorter-lived but give residents far less lead time before impacts arrive.
That distinction matters. A storm forming hundreds of miles offshore gives coastal communities days to prepare. A system spinning up in the Gulf can make landfall within hours of becoming a named storm. The two storms that have already formed this season, Arthur and Bertha, both developed in that Gulf environment.
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross urged people to make sure they have a hurricane plan in place regardless of the seasonal numbers. The message is straightforward: it only takes one storm to cause major damage, and a below-average season offers no guarantee that the one storm won't hit your community.
When NOAA first forecast a below-average 2026 season back in late May, the agency set the probability at 55 percent. Two months later, that figure has climbed 20 points. The El Niño has only intensified in the interim, and NOAA's own models suggest the peak is still months away.
A Super El Niño does not just suppress hurricanes. The same Pacific warming that creates wind shear over the Atlantic also reshapes weather patterns across the continental United States, altering winter precipitation, shifting storm tracks, and influencing temperatures from coast to coast. NOAA has already warned that a historically strong El Niño could reshape winter weather across the South, with consequences that will extend well past the November 30 end of hurricane season.
NOAA's caution about "different impacts than those traditionally observed" applies broadly. Forecasters are working with a climate pattern that, by some models, has no modern precedent. The agency's own language, careful, hedged, and notably short on specifics about what those unprecedented impacts might look like, reflects genuine uncertainty.
The combination of El Niño, wind shear, and other atmospheric factors has kept the Atlantic remarkably quiet so far. Whether that quiet holds through the season's traditional September peak remains an open question, but every major forecasting institution is now pointing in the same direction.
A quiet hurricane season is good news for the millions of Americans who live along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. But "below average" is a forecast, not a promise, and the same El Niño keeping storms at bay may be writing a weather story no one has read before.
