Forecasters are watching two areas for possible tropical development in the Atlantic basin this week, even as the 2026 hurricane season tracks toward a record-setting drought with zero hurricanes formed so far.
AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva, identified a zone several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda as the likelier candidate for development between Sept. 18 and 21. A second area of interest sits in the northern Gulf of Mexico near the U.S. Gulf Coast, where a tropical depression or storm could form by late in the week or over the weekend. Neither system is guaranteed to organize, but both represent the most notable tropical signals in a season that has produced far less activity than normal.
Only five named storms have formed in the 2026 Atlantic season through mid-September, roughly half the historical average of nine by this point. Not one has reached hurricane strength. If no hurricane forms by Sept. 21, the season will break a record that has stood since 1941, when the first hurricane of the year did not arrive until that date, AccuWeather reported.
The culprit behind the quiet season is El Niño. The climate pattern has pumped persistent wind shear and dry air across the Atlantic's main development region, a vast stretch from near the Caribbean to the west coast of Africa, choking off the warm, moist conditions that tropical systems need to strengthen. AccuWeather continues to forecast a well-below-average Atlantic hurricane season as a result.
The contrast with the Pacific has been stark. While the Atlantic sits idle, the Eastern Pacific has seen far more vigorous activity, a pattern consistent with El Niño nearing historic strength and reshaping storm tracks across both ocean basins.
Three of the five Atlantic named storms this year, Arthur, Bertha, and Edouard, were essentially homebrew systems that formed within a few hundred miles of the U.S. coast rather than rolling in from the deep tropics. That pattern underscores how hostile conditions in the open Atlantic have been for classic Cape Verde, type hurricanes.
The season's record-quiet stretch has drawn increasing attention from forecasters trying to place 2026 in historical context.
DaSilva flagged the central Atlantic disturbance as the higher-risk zone. Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno explained the mechanics behind it:
"This swirl is associated with a storm in the middle layer of the atmosphere. Sometimes storms like this spin down to the surface, and if conditions allow, they can evolve into a tropical or subtropical storm."
The area southeast of Bermuda is somewhat more humid and has lower wind shear than much of the rest of the basin, a small pocket of survivable conditions in an otherwise hostile Atlantic. A heat dome to the north could provide additional spin to help the system organize. If it does develop, Bermuda could see downpours, squalls, and rough seas.
The development window runs from Sept. 18 through 21, the same date that would mark the record-breaking threshold for the latest first hurricane of a season.
The second area of interest involves an upper-atmosphere storm that a jet stream dip may break away and push southwestward across Florida and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. DaSilva said wind shear and the storm's swift movement would initially prevent it from reaching the ocean surface. But he left the door open:
"However, if it slows down over the northern Gulf, a tropical depression or storm could develop near the Gulf Coast from late this week into this weekend."
The northern Gulf is described as a familiar area for tropical development this season, consistent with the homebrew pattern that has defined the 2026 Atlantic. Even if the system does not organize into a named storm, residents along the Gulf Coast could face heavy rain, gusty winds, and rough seas.
Meanwhile, as the jet stream storm tracks southwestward, surface winds running opposite to the Gulf Stream current are expected to create rough seas, powerful surf, and strong, shifting rip currents from Florida to North Carolina. Beachgoers along the southern Atlantic coast face elevated danger regardless of whether either system earns a name.
The next two available storm names on the 2026 Atlantic list are Fay and Gonzalo. NOAA has already cut its seasonal hurricane forecast more than once as El Niño's grip tightened.
AccuWeather meteorologist Jesse Ferrell put the stakes in historical terms. Citing a revised National Hurricane Center report, Ferrell noted that a storm reached hurricane status on Sept. 21, 1941, the first hurricane of that season. If the Atlantic stays hurricane-free past that date, 2026 will own the record for the latest first hurricane in any documented season.
And if no hurricane forms at all? The 2026 season would become the first hurricane-free Atlantic season of the satellite era, which began in the mid-1960s. Only two Atlantic seasons in the official record produced zero hurricanes: 1907 and 1914. The 1914 season, notably, was also an El Niño year, and it created just a single tropical storm across the entire basin. That storm made landfall in Florida before moving into Georgia with relatively minor impacts.
In 1907, no tropical storms or hurricanes were documented at all, and neither El Niño nor La Niña was present, making that season a genuine meteorological outlier rather than a product of a known climate driver.
The steady march of El Niño toward historic strength has been the defining storyline of the 2026 season. While the Eastern Pacific has churned out storms, including multiple major hurricanes aimed at Hawaii, the Atlantic has remained remarkably subdued.
Whether either of this week's disturbances organizes into something with a name, the broader picture is clear: nature, not policy, is running the 2026 hurricane season, and El Niño has been a more effective storm suppressor than any government program ever devised.
