Three Iranian oil tankers carrying roughly five million barrels of crude have sailed through the former U.S. blockade line in the Gulf of Oman, days before the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran is even formally signed. The ships belong to a company the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned for funding a designated terrorist organization.
Ship tracking firms Kpler and Vortexa confirmed that the tankers Hero II and Diona completed their passage on Wednesday, each loaded with approximately two million barrels of Iranian oil bound for Asia. A smaller tanker, Sonia I, also crossed the line, headed for Singapore. All three vessels are owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company, which the Treasury Department sanctioned in October 2020 for providing income to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Two more Iranian-linked vessels, the Stream and the Herby, are approaching the blockade line. The Stream switched off its identification transponder upon reaching the line. And at least five Iran-flagged cargo ships that had been parked near Malaysia have departed and are now heading back to Iran.
President Trump announced a ceasefire deal with Tehran on Sunday. The formal signing of the MOU is not scheduled until Friday. That means the U.S. blockade remains technically in effect, as USNI News reported. Yet Iranian tankers are already moving, with their transponders on, no less.
Maritime intelligence firm Windward reported that the Hero II, Diona, and Sonia I are the first Iranian ships to run with identification transponders turned on since March. That detail matters. For months, Iranian vessels had been running dark, evading detection. Now they are broadcasting their positions openly, apparently confident the blockade is finished in all but name.
Charlie Brown of United Against Nuclear Iran offered a blunt assessment:
"The signal has gone out and they are repositioning in expectation of the end of the U.S. blockade. Clearly, a system reboot is in progress."
Meanwhile, the international shipping sector is not nearly so confident. Lloyd's List Intelligence issued a note to clients on Tuesday describing the mood across the maritime industry in cautious terms:
"The maritime sector is treating the news with something closer to wary disbelief than celebration."
The firm added that while a pause in hostilities would free stranded mariners and boost tanker and bulk markets, "the sector sees this as a fragile reprieve rather than a return to normality."
The ceasefire did not materialize from goodwill. It followed months of escalating U.S. military operations that systematically degraded Iran's ability to choke off the Strait of Hormuz. The Washington Examiner reported that the U.S. Navy disabled eight oil tankers and redirected more than 130 vessels since beginning its counterblockade of Iranian ports in mid-April, while also striking Iranian air defense sites, ground control stations, and surveillance radar near the strait.
Trump himself framed the leverage candidly, telling reporters the U.S. was "really close to a deal" while acknowledging the military dimension. He said Iran's leaders "keep tapping us along, they keep playing us for suckers because, you know what, they dealt with some very stupid presidents."
The administration's announced peace deal signing came after Trump launched "Project Freedom," a military operation to escort commercial ships safely through the Strait of Hormuz. Just The News reported that Iran attempted to interfere with the operation through cruise missiles, drones, and small boat attacks, all of which U.S. forces defeated, sinking seven Iranian gunboats with no American ships hit.
Admiral Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM commander, stated: "We have defeated each and every one of those threats through the clinical application of defensive munitions."
The economic toll on Tehran was severe. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that under the U.S. counterblockade, Iran had collected less than $1.3 million in strait tolls, a pittance compared to its previous daily oil revenues. Newsmax reported that Iran risked being forced to shut in oil wells within a week as its oil storage neared capacity and its currency had lost 98 percent of its value over the prior decade.
Tehran did not come quietly. Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who had led the Iranian delegation in talks with Vice President J.D. Vance in Islamabad, Pakistan, publicly warned Trump on social media that Iran would not accept negotiations under threat. Fox News reported that Ghalibaf stated Iran had "prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield" over the prior two weeks.
Those cards proved insufficient. The combination of military pressure, economic strangulation, and diplomatic channels through Pakistan and Gulf allies ultimately produced the ceasefire announcement.
The deal itself has drawn sharp reactions across the political spectrum. Trump has made clear the agreement is not final and warned the U.S. could resume strikes if Tehran breaks its commitments. That conditionality is important context for what is happening on the water right now.
The gap between Iranian confidence and international caution is striking. Iran's state-linked tanker fleet is already sailing through the former blockade zone, transponders blazing. But only a handful of international ships bottled up in the Persian Gulf have been willing to test Trump's assurances that the strait has been reopened.
Windward reported Wednesday that dozens of very large crude carriers have sailed from the South China Sea and Indian Ocean toward fuel-loading ports in the United Arab Emirates. Those ports can only be reached by passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Lloyd's List Intelligence anticipated that heavily loaded VLCCs would seek "first-mover advantage" for the reopened strait.
The economic consequences of the deal announcement rippled through oil markets immediately, with crude prices dropping as traders priced in the prospect of Iranian barrels returning to global supply.
At the same time, the AP reported that 1,550 vessels from 87 countries remained stranded in the Persian Gulf due to Iran's earlier chokehold on the strait, a reminder of the scale of disruption Tehran caused and the logistical reality that normalization will take weeks, not days.
The political landscape around the deal remains turbulent. Fractures within the GOP over the agreement's terms have surfaced publicly, and critics from both parties have questioned whether the MOU gives Iran too much breathing room before verification mechanisms are in place.
The specific terms of the memorandum of understanding have not been made public. The exact nature of Trump's assurances regarding the strait's reopening, and through what channel they were communicated to the shipping industry, remains unclear. So does the question of whether the National Iranian Tanker Company's Treasury sanctions will be lifted, modified, or simply unenforced under the new agreement.
What is clear is this: sanctioned Iranian vessels owned by a company designated for funding the IRGC are moving freely through waters the U.S. Navy was patrolling just days ago. The ink on the deal is not dry. The MOU is not signed. And Tehran is already acting as if the blockade never happened.
When the other side starts collecting on a deal before the signatures are on the page, it tells you who thinks they got the better end of the bargain.
