Hurricane Rachel is forecast to become the Pacific’s next major hurricane, and its moisture is poised to feed a dangerous weeklong flood threat across more than 30 states.
FOX Weather reported that the National Hurricane Center expects Rachel to strengthen further over the next couple of days and reach major-hurricane status in the open Pacific.
The storm already sits as a Category 2 system with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. It was located about 245 miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, and forecasters said it should turn away from the Mexican coast as it gains strength.
That track keeps Rachel offshore. The larger problem for the United States is the moisture it will send north.
A large dip in the jet stream is pulling moisture from Rachel up behind the remnants of Hurricane Polo. That same pattern already ushered Polo’s leftover moisture into the U.S. Southwest and triggered more flash flooding.
Midweek, Rachel’s contribution is expected to fuel a broader flood threat across much of the Central United States. Related coverage has put more than 150 million people under a weeklong flood threat spanning 30-plus states.
That is not a narrow coastal warning. It is a multi-day inland risk driven by tropical leftover water and a favorable jet-stream setup.
Hurricane Polo made landfall as a Category 2 storm on Baja California Sur, Mexico, late Monday, then made a second landfall as a hurricane on mainland Mexico after crossing the Gulf of California.
Before those hits, Polo had reached Category 5 strength three times and peaked at 180 mph last week. Its central pressure fell to 892 millibars, making it the second-most intense Eastern Pacific hurricane by that measure behind Hurricane Patricia’s 872 millibars in 2015.
Landfall impacts in Mexico included damaging wind gusts, flooding, fallen trees, power cuts, and seawater breaching coastal defenses in places such as Puerto San Carlos in Baja California Sur. Photo captions tied the flooded town and debris clearing to September 29, 2026.
Polo was also rare on the U.S. side of the mountains. It became only the 10th remnant tropical storm or hurricane since 1950 to survive the trip over the terrain and still affect the United States. The last Baja California hurricane landfall before Polo was Norma in October 2023, a point noted in earlier reporting as Hurricane Polo hit Baja California with life-threatening winds.
Once inland, the remnants moved along the jet stream and helped spark additional flash flooding in the Southwest, a sequence also tracked as former Hurricane Polo’s remnants sparked flash floods and evacuations across the region.
Rachel became the 20th named storm and the 10th hurricane in the Central and Eastern Pacific this season. Forecasters tied the elevated activity in part to a strengthening El Niño that warms basin waters and supercharges storm production.
The National Hurricane Center also flagged a new area to watch Tuesday afternoon and gave the system high odds of developing over the next seven days. In the open Pacific, Tropical Depression Nineteen-E formed Tuesday morning and was expected to dissipate by Friday. The next named storm in the Eastern Pacific would be called Simon.
Earlier in the cycle, Pacific systems already had the Southwest on notice, including coverage of how Pacific hurricanes Polo and Odalys put the Southwest under flood watches while other weather threats developed elsewhere.
Rachel’s immediate forecast path points out to sea. The moisture plume does not. Americans living well inland from any Pacific coastline still sit in the downwind path of that tropical water.
The core risk described in the forecast is straightforward. Rachel strengthens offshore. The jet stream taps its moisture. That moisture combines with Polo’s remnants already streaming northeast. The result is a prolonged flood threat across a huge stretch of the country rather than a single-day coastal event.
No injuries, deaths, or U.S. damage totals were detailed in the available storm update. The warning is about exposure and timing. Over 150 million people across more than 30 states face a dangerous, weeklong flood setup as the pattern holds.
For communities already dealing with runoff from Polo’s remnants, Rachel’s added moisture extends the clock. Flash-flood problems do not need a hurricane landfall on U.S. soil when the atmosphere is already primed to wring out tropical air over the same corridors.
California has also been linked in related headlines to a state of emergency declaration as a potentially historic Super El Niño looms, though the Rachel update itself did not spell out those emergency details.
The National Hurricane Center’s working outlook remains the guidepost: Rachel turns away from Mexico, strengthens toward major-hurricane strength in the open Pacific, and still helps feed inland flooding through the moisture field trailing behind it. Prior reporting as Hurricane Polo neared Baja landfall had already framed the Southwest flood threat and Rachel’s formation in the same active pattern.
When Pacific waters run hot and the jet stream aims the leftovers at the country’s midsection, the danger shows up hundreds of miles from the surf line. Prepare for the water, not the wind.
