Hurricane Polo is set to hit Mexico’s Baja California as a hurricane today, raising a serious flood threat across the Southwest while Tropical Storm Rachel forms behind it in the Pacific.
FOX Weather reported that Hurricane Polo continues through the Pacific and is expected to make landfall as a hurricane, with rain, flooding, and mudslide risks tied to its track toward Mexico and moisture headed for the Southwest United States.
Tropical Storm Rachel formed Sunday off Mexico’s southwestern coast as Polo closed in, stacking two Pacific systems in quick succession and extending watches, warnings, and flood alerts from Baja into California, Arizona, New Mexico, and northwest Texas.
Polo has already been downgraded to a Category 3 storm after peaking as one of the strongest systems on record in the basin. At its strongest, the FOX Forecast Center said Polo carried the second-lowest pressure ever observed in the East or Central Pacific.
A Hurricane Warning covers central Baja California extending to Santa Fe, Mexico, as Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday and move across the peninsula later in the evening.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency as the storm threat increased, framing the move as preparation for communities and first responders in the path of heavy rain and flooding.
Newsom said the declaration was about readiness on the ground.
"That is what this action is about. Giving communities the support they need, giving first responders the tools to do their jobs, and giving families the confidence that their state is ready."
Forecast guidance tied to Polo points to as much as 10 inches of rain across parts of the affected region, with flooding and mudslides listed among the main hazards as the system comes ashore and spreads moisture inland.
Rachel became the 20th named storm of the Pacific hurricane season on Sunday, with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1,001 millibars.
The National Hurricane Center warned that swells from Rachel could create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the coast. NOAA has a Tropical Storm Watch in effect from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.
Forecasters expect Rachel to strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday, which would make it the 10th hurricane of the season. The atmosphere around the storm looks favorable for intensification, though cooler water left behind by Polo may put a ceiling on how strong it gets.
The FOX Forecast Center put it this way:
"The atmosphere around Rachel is expected to be nearly pristine for intensification, however Rachel's intensity may be limited slightly by the fact that it will track over cooler waters churned up by Hurricane Polo."
Nearly the entire state of Arizona is under a Flood Watch. The National Weather Service also issued a Flood Watch for El Paso, Texas, through Tuesday night.
Monday is forecast as the first day of a broader severe threat, with a band of 1 to 2 inches of rain expected across Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado. The flood threat has been rated Level 3 out of 4 for days to come.
That inland risk matters because remnant tropical moisture does not often survive the mountains and deserts of the Southwest. Since 1950, only nine remnant tropical storms or hurricanes have made it across that terrain to affect southern Arizona or New Mexico.
The last hurricane to make landfall in Baja California was Norma in October 2023. Polo is now lined up to become the next system to test that coastline, with California’s emergency declaration and multi-state flood watches already in place before the heaviest impacts arrive.
When two Pacific storms stack up against drought-scarred hillsides and desert washes, the measure of leadership is simple: clear warnings, honest risk, and no excuses after the water rises.
