Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton privately told donors Republican polling sank after the Dallas midterm convention, even as President Trump publicly said the event helped his Senate bid.
Paxton locked himself into a blunt assessment last week. Speaking to a group of conservative donors and lobbyists, the Republican Senate candidate said the party’s much-hyped midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month dragged the numbers down.
Audio of the private remarks, obtained by the New York Times and detailed in a New York Post report, captured Paxton describing a broad slide rather than a one-off dip.
The admission lands in a tight Texas Senate race. State Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, is trying to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Texas since 1988, and the RealClearPolitics polling average currently shows him ahead by 2.9 percentage points.
Paxton, 63, did not soft-pedal what he saw in the data after Dallas.
Paxton told the donors and lobbyists the convention hit more than his own line.
"To be honest with you, the numbers, when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped,"
He added a second blunt line on the current picture.
"Right now, yeah, not good."
That private read sits next to a very different public message from President Trump. On Sept. 13, speaking to reporters in Ireland, Trump credited the same Dallas convention with lifting Paxton and praised his record as attorney general.
"I think the fact that we had such a successful convention really helped Ken Paxton. He was a big part of it. And look, I mean, he was a great attorney general. Ken Paxton was a great attorney general, and continues to be, and I think that counts for a lot... I hear that the convention helped Ken Paxton a lot."
Trump is scheduled to appear Thursday at a Peterbilt Motors facility in Denton, Texas, as part of a closing push for Republican candidates. Paxton’s team is counting on that visit to tighten the race in the final stretch.
The contrast is straightforward. Trump sold the convention as a plus. Paxton, speaking privately to people writing checks, said the numbers moved the other way.
Paxton campaign adviser Nick Maddux rejected the New York Times framing outright and pointed to newer internal numbers.
"more manipulated nonsense from The New York Times to create a story that doesn’t exist. Our latest poll from the last week has Ken Paxton leading by three points, and every serious pollster will tell you that our numbers have improved since early September. Ken Paxton is going to win this race, and he looks forward to closing strong alongside President Trump including when he comes to Texas this week."
Maddux’s claim of a three-point Paxton lead collides with the RealClearPolitics average showing Talarico up 2.9 points. Both cannot describe the same snapshot. Voters will sort which track matches reality on Election Day.
Outside spending is already treating the contest as a must-hold. The Senate Leadership Fund, affiliated with Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), has put $100 million behind Paxton and plans to keep spending through Election Day, with an eight-figure ad effort already in the field. An unnamed source described the outlay as a “red wall kind of thing,” adding, “We only spend money where we think we can make a difference.”
That kind of money does not arrive for a safe seat. It arrives when a red-state hold looks competitive and national Republicans refuse to watch Texas drift.
Paxton reached this general-election fight the hard way. Earlier this year he unseated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a bitter GOP primary runoff, clearing the party lane only after a bruising internal contest.
National Republican muscle has followed. Separate Trump-aligned spending has already signaled how seriously the president’s orbit treats the Texas map, and another wave of MAGA Inc. money has targeted the same contest against Talarico.
Personal and political baggage remains in the rearview. The Texas legislature impeached Paxton in May 2023 on corruption charges; he was ultimately acquitted. His wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce on “biblical grounds” and has since urged voters to keep the seat in Republican hands. None of that erased him with the primary electorate that chose him over Cornyn.
Party figures have kept pressing for a unified front. Ted Cruz has demanded GOP unity behind Paxton rather than a prolonged internal split that would only help Democrats in November.
Talarico’s pitch is historic on its face: the first Democratic Senate win in Texas since 1988. That goal requires a sustained lead and a Republican base that stays home or fractures. A video of Talarico promising a Senate fight for transgender children has already given conservatives a clear ideological marker for the choice on the ballot.
Paxton’s private donor-room verdict does not rewrite the calendar. It does tell donors, in his own voice, that the Dallas convention failed to deliver the bounce Trump described in Ireland. Campaigns can argue methodology and timing. They cannot erase the candidate saying “everybody’s numbers dropped” and “right now, yeah, not good.”
Trump’s Denton stop still gives Republicans a high-profile closer on the ground. The Senate Leadership Fund’s $100 million commitment shows the institutional right is not treating Texas as a spectator sport. Maddux insists the recent internal trend runs toward Paxton by three points. The public average still shows Talarico narrowly ahead.
Texas voters have watched Paxton survive impeachment, beat an incumbent senator in a runoff, and absorb a very public family split. The remaining question is simpler than the noise around it: whether the closing weeks reverse the slide he described to donors, or whether a Democrat finally breaks a Senate drought that has held since the late 1980s.
Private candor to the check-writers is useful. Delivering a Republican hold in Texas is what actually counts.
