New WMO figures project tropical Pacific waters nearly 4°C above average by early 2027, a Super El Niño the agency’s chief says is off the charts.
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific could rise by as much as 3.8°C above average from November 2026 to January 2027, the World Meteorological Organisation’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update states.
That dwarfs the WMO’s own bar for declaring an El Niño. The agency calls the event when the sea surface temperature anomaly in the region hits just 0.5°C.
The Daily Mail reported the new figures and the warning from WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, who said the strength now sits outside the tools officials have relied on for years.
"This is literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades,"
Saulo said. She also tied the peak to the calendar still ahead.
"El Niño will peak towards the end of 2026 but its impacts will be felt long after that."
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a natural flip between hot and cold phases. The pattern shifts every two to seven years.
Trade winds normally push warm water away from South America toward Australia. When those winds slow or reverse, cold water stops welling up. Hot water builds near the surface across the equatorial and tropical Pacific, the epicenter of the event.
Climate.gov material cited with the figures describes the same swing among El Niño, La Niña, and neutral phases, including the rainfall and wind shifts that hit Indonesia and the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
None of that is a brand-new invention of politics. It is a recurring ocean-atmosphere cycle. The forecast still matters because the swing is large.
Outlook maps tied to the update show the split from October to December: severe drought in some regions, heavy rainfall and flooding in others. Surface air predictions pictured for October, December 2026 track the same season.
Europe is likely to see above-average temperatures from November to January, with rainfall forecasts pointing to slightly wetter-than-normal conditions.
Africa faces warmer-than-average conditions. The Greater Horn of Africa is tagged for increased rainfall. Parts of southern Africa are tagged for drier weather.
Across much of Asia, above-average temperatures are forecast. Increased rainfall is expected from the Arabian Peninsula through Central and Eastern Asia.
Much of North America is expected to run warmer than average. Northern South America draws a drier outlook. Parts of the continent’s southeast are likely to be wetter. Australia is set for above-average temperatures and slightly increased rainfall.
The update frames the broader risk in plain terms: drought, heavy rain, flooding, added heat, and extreme weather events expected to multiply and cascade. The article tied to the figures says extreme weather is already being witnessed amid this year’s El Niño, without listing each storm or date.
Saulo did not sell inevitable ruin. She sold readiness.
"A powerful El Niño does not have to be a recipe for humanitarian disaster,"
she said. She followed with the tools already on the shelf.
"We have the science, the forecasts and the early warning systems to save lives and protect livelihoods."
"What we need now is decisive action, especially to protect the most vulnerable communities," Saulo added.
That is the practical core. Officials have a threshold, a seasonal update, regional temperature and rainfall outlooks, and decades of monitoring charts, charts this event is now said to exceed. The missing piece she named is follow-through for people most exposed to drought, flood, and heat.
Taxpayers and local governments will live with the bill either way: in emergency response after the fact, or in earlier hardening of water systems, flood controls, farm planning, and relief logistics while the forecast window is still open.
A natural cycle that runs every few years does not excuse delay. It removes the excuse of surprise. When the WMO’s own numbers put tropical Pacific warmth nearly eight times the El Niño declaration level, the sober response is competent preparation, not fatalism, and not a blank check for every unrelated agenda hung on the weather.
