President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” is barreling toward a July 4 deadline, but Republican infighting threatens to derail it. House and Senate GOP leaders are clashing over key provisions, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune facing a tightrope walk to unify his party. The White House, ever the optimist, insists the bill will be signed by Independence Day, as Politico reports.
Trump’s ambitious legislation, which narrowly passed the House last month, aims to exempt tips, overtime pay, and Social Security from income taxes, costing $230 billion according to the Joint Committee on Taxation. The bill’s complexity surpasses the 2017 tax overhaul, with slimmer margins for passage. GOP leaders set a self-imposed July 4 target, but some Republicans are skeptical it’s achievable.
Last month, Trump’s intervention secured House passage by swaying moderate and conservative holdouts. The bill’s initial Memorial Day target seemed a pipe dream, yet it squeaked through. Now, the Senate’s turn is proving thornier, with competing demands and a looming “vote-a-rama” complicating matters.
Senate Republicans are eyeing tweaks to two House provisions: the $40,000 cap on state-and-local-tax deductions and the rapid repeal of clean-energy tax breaks. Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo wants to make business tax breaks permanent, potentially by lowering the tax deduction cap. Such moves are already sparking pushback from the House Freedom Caucus, who loathe any delay in axing green tax incentives.
“The Senate is going to do what it damn well wants to do,” Sen. Ted Cruz declared at a Punchbowl News event. That bravado underscores the chamber’s intent to reshape the bill, but it risks alienating House Speaker Mike Johnson, who resists alterations. The White House, meanwhile, is adamant: no traditional conferencing or back-and-forth “pingpong” between chambers.
“There’s not going to be a pingpong or a conference,” a Trump administration official stated. This hardline stance assumes the Senate will deliver a bill the House can rubber-stamp. Good luck selling that to a fractious GOP conference where every senator fancies themselves a dealmaker.
Trump is meeting Thune and Crapo at the White House to iron out differences. The president’s campaign pledges -- exempting tips, overtime, and Social Security from taxes -- are sacrosanct, costing a hefty $230 billion. Some Senate Republicans floated scaling back these priorities to fund business tax breaks, but the White House shut that down faster than a progressive policy pitch.
“We’re not willing to entertain any scaling back of our signature promises,” a second Trump administration official said. This rigidity ensures Trump’s voter commitments stay intact, even if it means less room for Crapo’s business tax tweaks. The Senate Finance Committee, notably, didn’t challenge Trump’s tax priorities during a recent White House huddle.
Thune confirmed Trump’s priorities are locked in, signaling the Senate won’t budge on the president’s core promises. Yet, Crapo’s proposal to extend the phase-out of clean-energy tax breaks is a sticking point. The House Freedom Caucus, ever allergic to anything smelling remotely of green policy, is ready to pounce.
“We are targeting the week of July 4 for final passage,” a Trump administration official said Wednesday. That sunny optimism clashes with growing doubts among Republicans like Sen. John Curtis, who remarked, “A lot of us would be surprised” if the deadline holds. Curtis’ skepticism reflects the bill’s tight margins and the Senate’s amendment gauntlet.
Thune must navigate a “vote-a-rama,” where senators can propose endless amendments, potentially derailing the bill’s momentum. Collaborating with Johnson, who’s protective of the House’s version, adds another layer of complexity. The White House’s refusal to entertain a conferencing process only heightens the pressure on Thune to deliver.
“I think ultimately a lot of members are wish-casting different structures to permit more of their own priorities,” the first Trump administration official noted. That’s a polite way of saying senators are jockeying for their pet projects while Trump’s team holds the line. The president’s insistence on his campaign promises leaves little wiggle room for compromise.
The bill’s fate hinges on Thune’s ability to corral his conference and align with Johnson’s House. Trump’s hands-on approach, fresh off his House victory, suggests he’ll lean hard on wavering senators. But the Senate’s independent streak -- exemplified by Cruz’s defiance -- could test even Trump’s dealmaking prowess.
House passage last month was a triumph of Trump’s persuasion, but the Senate’s dynamics are less predictable. Crapo’s push for permanent business tax breaks, potentially at the expense of the state-and-local-tax deduction, risks alienating moderates. The Freedom Caucus’ disdain for clean-energy extensions further muddles the waters.
With July 4 fast approaching, the GOP’s internal squabbles threaten to overshadow Trump’s legislative ambitions. The White House’s no-compromise stance on conferencing may streamline the process -- or blow it up entirely. One thing’s clear: this “big, beautiful bill” is shaping up to be a high-stakes test of Republican unity.
