Minnesota Governor Tim Walz now holds a lower approval rating than President Donald Trump in his own state, a state Democrats have carried in every presidential election since 1972. A Mason-Dixon poll conducted June 8, 10 found Walz at 39% approval and 53% disapproval, the lowest mark of his six years in office. Trump, by contrast, registered 41% approval in Minnesota in the same polling window.
The two-point gap tells a bigger story than any single survey. It tells the story of a governor who rode into office as a supposed moderate and leaves it as the face of one of the largest fraud scandals in American history, with federal investigators, not state officials, doing the work of cleaning it up.
The poll, commissioned jointly by KARE 11, the Minnesota Star Tribune, and the University of Minnesota's Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication, surveyed 800 registered voters likely to participate in the November general election. Interviews were conducted live by telephone. Walz's support has cratered by ten points since last year alone.
The cross-tabs paint a grim picture for Walz and for Democrats heading into a competitive cycle. Just 32% of independents approve of the governor's performance. Among Republicans, the figure is 1%, a number so low it barely registers as a rounding error.
Even among Democrats, Walz's approval sits at 73%. For a sitting governor from their own party, that figure reflects significant erosion within the base.
Perhaps more damaging for the party at large: voters trust Republicans over Democrats to address the fraud crisis, 45% to 38%. Another 14% said they trust neither party. That gap suggests the scandal has moved beyond partisan talking points and into the realm of settled public judgment, at least in Minnesota.
Breitbart noted that the numbers reflect a traditionally Democratic state where voters are now more favorably disposed toward a Republican president than toward their own governor. That is not a normal political environment.
The Trump administration has taken a major interest in Minnesota over the past year, deploying a federal fraud task force that has produced raids, arrests, and further investigations. The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee held a hearing on March 4, 2026, examining alleged misuse of federal funds for Minnesota social services and Medicaid programs. Walz himself testified.
Rep. James Comer, chairman of the House Oversight Committee, has stated that Minnesota state leaders, including Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison, ignored whistleblower warnings and allowed $300 million in federal nutrition fraud. Comer has emphasized that the decision was driven by political reasons, specifically to avoid accusations of racism.
A House Oversight report accused Walz and Ellison of ignoring billions in welfare fraud, a charge that has only gained traction as federal investigators continue their work in the state.
The scandal's reach has extended into multiple dimensions of accountability. Vice President J.D. Vance referred fraud evidence to the Department of Justice and sought a criminal probe of both Walz and Ellison, an escalation that underscores how seriously the administration views the matter.
Meanwhile, separate reporting revealed that the Walz administration used private investigators to target fraud whistleblowers, the very people who tried to sound the alarm before the losses ballooned.
Republican officials in Minnesota and Washington have not been shy about framing the poll as a verdict on Walz's tenure. Rep. Tom Emmer, the House Majority Whip who represents Minnesota's 6th Congressional District, told Fox News Digital:
"President Trump is more popular than Tim Walz in his home state because Minnesotans are sick and tired of Walz siding with illegal aliens and Somali fraudsters over his hardworking, taxpaying constituents. The legacy of Tim Walz will be the fires that destroyed Minneapolis, the fraud that he allowed to be stolen under his watch, and his failures that have harmed our great state."
Emmer also took aim at the state's controversial new flag, which a Democratic-controlled legislature approved through a 13-member commission in 2023. Critics have pointed to its resemblance to Somalia's national flag. The Mason-Dixon poll found that 50% of voters disapprove of the new design.
Emmer added that "two issues that unite a majority of Minnesotans are the rejection of Tim Walz and his failed policies and our hatred for the Minnesota Somali state flag."
State Sen. Mark Koran, a Republican, connected the dots between the fraud crisis and Walz's broader governing agenda. He told Fox News Digital:
"He let his fraud crisis blow up and didn't do anything to fix it while he was busy shoving all this radical stuff into state government. After years of extreme far-left ideology and policies that don't help normal people, Minnesotans have had enough. His legacy is going to be the fraud crisis and desecrating the state flag. Minnesota is just tired of it."
State Sen. Michael Holmstrom was more pointed. "America rejected Tim Walz in 2024," he said, referencing Walz's failed vice-presidential bid on the Harris ticket. "Now Minnesotans are following suit. The good news for Tim is that, now that his record is on full display, he could soon be the most popular guy in the jailhouse."
Walz announced he will not seek re-election and is set to leave office in January. Fox News Digital reached out to his office for comment on the poll results. No response was noted.
The governor's political trajectory has been one of steady decline. National Review observed that even before the fraud scandal reached its current intensity, Walz was a polarizing figure in his own state. Once seen as a moderate Democrat from a red-leaning congressional district, he had by his 2022 reelection "burned his bridges to and his support from rural Minnesotans," as the outlet put it. Half of independents viewed him unfavorably, and his favorability among men stood at just 38%.
The fraud crisis accelerated what was already a downward slide. And Walz's attempts to manage the fallout have not helped his cause. He tried to claim credit for FBI fraud raids in Minnesota, a move that federal officials publicly rejected.
Townhall columnist Dustin Grage captured the political math plainly in a post on X: "Tim Walz has a lower approval rating than President Trump in deep blue Minnesota right now. That's how toxic the fraud has become for Democrats."
Walz is a lame duck. He will not face voters again. But the damage he leaves behind is not confined to his own political career. The fraud scandal, the trust deficit on the issue, and the collapse of independent support all land squarely on the Democratic brand in Minnesota.
A state that Joe Biden carried by seven points in 2020 now trusts Republicans over Democrats on one of the biggest governance failures in recent memory. That is not a problem a new candidate can wave away with a fresh slogan.
Other controversies have compounded the damage. Walz pardoned an illegal immigrant convicted of armed robbery, blocking an ICE deportation, a decision that reinforced the perception Emmer described of a governor who prioritized ideology over the interests of law-abiding Minnesotans.
The Mason-Dixon poll is a snapshot. But snapshots matter when they confirm what voters have been saying for months. Walz's approval did not collapse overnight. It eroded steadily as the fraud grew, the investigations widened, and the governor's office either deflected or went silent.
When a governor in a blue state can't outpoll a Republican president, the problem isn't messaging. It's the record.
