The Trump administration has quietly ramped up American intelligence operations inside Cuba in recent months, deploying spies and assets to the island as part of a broader campaign to force the communist government into political and economic reforms, or push it from power entirely.
Two people familiar with the plans told Politico that the effort includes an increased CIA presence on the island, paired with tightened sanctions, a cutoff of Venezuelan oil shipments, public messaging campaigns aimed at the Cuban people, and legal action against former Cuban leader Raul Castro. The scope of the intelligence buildup remains undisclosed, and four agencies, the CIA, the White House, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, all declined to respond to Politico's requests for comment.
The silence from Washington stands in sharp contrast to the scale of the reported activity. Newsmax reported that one source described the intelligence expansion as "a key tactical step" that could lay the groundwork for a possible U.S. military incursion, though the same source cautioned that "the outlines of any such operation are far from clear."
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is at the center of the push. One person familiar with the administration's plans called Cuba "a huge priority of Rubio's." Rubio, a Cuban American who has spent years pressing for tougher action against Havana, now occupies the cabinet seat with the most direct influence over U.S. diplomacy toward the island.
The administration's approach pairs the intelligence escalation with a broader economic strategy. Washington has tightened sanctions, cut off supplies of Venezuelan oil and other fuel shipments, and imposed what amounts to an energy blockade. Officials argue that depriving the Cuban government of resources will force political and economic reforms, a pressure campaign designed to squeeze a regime already struggling to keep the lights on.
The Trump administration's broader sanctions campaign against Cuba has included asset freezes and criminal charges targeting the regime's leadership, adding legal teeth to the diplomatic and economic offensive.
One source told Politico that the administration "is going to pursue all the conventional tools, including intelligence community resources" to pressure Cuba's leadership. But the same source added that President Trump continues to "prefer diplomacy" to achieve the goal, a signal that the White House views intelligence operations and economic leverage as instruments to bring Havana to the table, not necessarily as a prelude to military force.
The pressure campaign is landing on a country already in crisis. Cuba is experiencing one of the worst electricity emergencies in its history. Near-daily blackouts, some nationwide, some regional, have rolled across the island in recent months, with prolonged outages lasting many hours each day. Hospitals, businesses, schools, and communications networks have all been disrupted. On Monday, the island suffered yet another blackout.
Cuba's electrical grid has deteriorated over decades of underinvestment. Obsolete Soviet-era generating plants, chronic fuel shortages, and repeated failures at major thermoelectric stations have left the system fragile. The Trump administration's energy blockade has worsened those conditions by choking off the fuel imports Havana depends on to keep generators running.
Cuban officials have blamed the U.S. embargo and sanctions for the accelerating collapse. That claim carries a familiar ring, Havana has pointed to American sanctions as the root of its economic failures for more than six decades. But the current crisis is harder to wave away. The blackouts are real, the public frustration is growing, and the regime's inability to deliver basic services is on display for the Cuban people every day.
The CIA director's recent visit to Havana as the island's oil reserves ran dry underscored how deeply the energy crisis has become intertwined with the intelligence and diplomatic maneuvering between Washington and the Cuban regime.
The most significant detail in Politico's reporting is what the expanded intelligence presence might be designed to accomplish. Sending spies and assets to Cuba could serve several purposes: recruiting Cuban officials or citizens to cooperate with the United States, gathering information on the regime's internal stability, or, as one source suggested, laying the groundwork for a possible military operation.
One person familiar with the plans dismissed the idea that the Iran situation needed to be resolved before the administration could turn its attention to Cuba. "Iran doesn't need to be solved before we go there," the source said, a remark that suggests Cuba occupies its own lane in the administration's national security planning, not a back-burner item waiting for bandwidth.
That framing matters. Reports of Iranian drones reportedly stationed in Cuba have added a layer of urgency to the administration's posture toward the island, linking Havana's security footprint to broader threats in the Western Hemisphere.
Cuba, for its part, has not taken the escalation quietly. Havana has threatened severe consequences if the United States launches military action, a response that tracks with the regime's long-standing posture of defiance even as its domestic situation deteriorates.
The administration's public posture remains calibrated. Washington says the sanctions and energy restrictions are designed to force political and economic reforms, not to topple the government outright. The anonymous sources' language tracks with that framing, one described the intelligence expansion as part of pursuing "all the conventional tools," while another emphasized Trump's preference for diplomacy.
But the gap between stated intent and operational capability is worth noting. An expanded intelligence presence, paired with an energy blockade and legal action against the former head of state, amounts to a full-spectrum pressure campaign. Whether the endgame is reform or removal may depend on how Havana responds, and how much longer the regime can hold together while its own people sit in the dark.
A State Department report accusing Cuba of running spy networks and influence operations inside the United States for decades has provided additional justification for the administration's harder line, framing the intelligence buildup as a response to Cuban provocations, not merely an offensive move.
Several key questions remain unanswered. Which agencies beyond the CIA are involved? How many personnel have been deployed? What specific legal charges has the administration brought against Raul Castro? And has any formal military planning been authorized beyond intelligence groundwork? None of these details have been disclosed, and the four agencies Politico contacted offered nothing.
For sixty years, Cuba's communist government has survived embargoes, diplomatic isolation, the collapse of its Soviet patron, and wave after wave of American pressure. Whether this campaign breaks the pattern depends on execution, and on whether Washington is willing to follow through when the regime digs in, as it always has.
