Tropical Storm Nolo is barreling toward the Hawaiian Islands with forecasters expecting it to reach major hurricane strength by Saturday, a scenario so uncommon it has prompted urgent warnings from federal agencies.
The storm sat roughly 300 miles southeast of South Point, Hawaii, carrying sustained winds of 40 mph and crawling northwest at just 6 mph. The National Hurricane Center issued a Hurricane Watch for Hawaii's Big Island, and Flood Watches now cover more than half of the state's main islands, including the Big Island, Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Kahoolawe.
NOAA said preparation should already be underway, and it warned that conditions could turn deadly as the storm closes in.
NOAA told residents:
"The time to prepare for significant heavy rain and flooding impacts on the Big Island is now, as heavy rain becomes more likely by Thursday and Friday."
The agency added a blunter assessment in a separate advisory:
"Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible."
The rainfall projections alone should get anyone's attention. Forecasters expect 8 to 12 inches of rain across the affected islands, with the eastern side of the Big Island facing 19 to 24 inches. Localized totals through the weekend could exceed 30 inches, enough to trigger catastrophic flooding and mudslides across terrain that funnels water fast.
Wind gusts above 70 mph are also expected as the storm intensifies. The FOX Forecast Center projects Nolo will strengthen into a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher on the five-tier Saffir-Simpson scale, by Saturday morning, right as it makes its closest approach to the islands.
Hawaii has already endured a punishing Pacific hurricane season. Earlier this year, Hurricane Lowell forced officials on Kauai to warn tourists away while the island recovered from storm damage.
Whether Nolo actually makes direct landfall remains an open question. Fox Weather reported that the FOX Forecast Center acknowledged the uncertainty but stressed how unusual the situation is regardless of the final track.
The center stated: "It remains uncertain whether the storm will make direct landfall. However, it is extremely rare for a major hurricane to come this close to the Hawaiian Islands."
NOAA hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly into Tropical Storm Nolo on Thursday afternoon to gather real-time data on the storm's structure and intensity. That information will sharpen forecasts heading into the weekend, when the heaviest impacts are expected.
Heavy rainfall is forecast to begin Thursday and continue through the weekend, with flood threats potentially lingering into Monday. The slow forward speed of the storm, just 6 mph, means it will wring moisture over the islands for days rather than hours.
Forecasters noted that Nolo is entering environmental conditions more favorable for rapid strengthening, which is why the jump from a 40-mph tropical storm to a major hurricane over roughly 48 hours is considered plausible.
The predicted rainfall for Nolo closely mirrors what was expected from Hurricane Lala, which made a close approach to Hawaii earlier in the season. That comparison underscores the recurring nature of the threat this year. Multiple Pacific hurricanes bore down on Hawaii and California over Labor Day weekend alone, stretching emergency resources across the region.
Nolo is not an isolated event. The Eastern Pacific basin has churned out storm after storm this year. Hurricane Polo reached historic Category 5 intensity and drove flash flood emergencies as far inland as New Mexico, a reminder that Pacific hurricanes can deliver consequences well beyond the open ocean.
Before Nolo organized, a tropical depression in the same basin reformed and threatened Hawaii with a rare major hurricane landfall, keeping the state on edge for weeks. Hurricane Hone also spun past the south side of the Big Island on August 25, adding to a season that has given Hawaiian residents little breathing room.
No evacuation orders or emergency declarations from state or local officials have been reported so far. That silence may not last. With a potential major hurricane bearing down, the window for preparation is narrowing fast, and NOAA has made clear that waiting is not an option.
Hawaii's residents know storms. But knowing storms and being ready for a major hurricane that could park itself over your island for days are two different things, and right now, the forecast says get ready.
