Hawaii's Big Island is under a hurricane watch as Tropical Storm Nolo churns toward the island chain, the third major storm to threaten the state in a span of weeks during an unusually punishing Pacific hurricane season.
The National Hurricane Center warned Thursday that Nolo could strengthen into a hurricane as early as Thursday night and reach major hurricane status, Category 3 or higher, by the weekend. The storm's center sat roughly 455 miles south-southeast of Honolulu and 285 miles south of the Big Island's South Point as of early Thursday, packing maximum sustained winds of 60 mph with tropical-storm-force winds extending 90 miles outward.
Forecasters expect Nolo to track north to north-northeast through Friday before making a sharp westward turn Saturday that would bring it directly into the Big Island's vicinity. The rainfall projections are staggering: 15 to 20 inches across the Big Island, with some areas potentially receiving up to 35 inches, nearly three feet. Maui faces 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals as high as 20 inches. Even the rest of the island chain could see 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals reaching 6 inches.
The hurricane center did not mince words about the danger.
"Catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain."
That warning applies first to the Big Island, but CBS News reported that life-threatening flooding and mudslides are also possible for Maui.
Major hurricanes making direct landfall in Hawaii are extraordinarily rare events. But Nolo's forecast track puts it on a collision course that few recent storms have matched. The New York Post reported that Flood Watches now cover more than half of the main Hawaiian Islands, including Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Kahoolawe, not just the Big Island under the hurricane watch.
NOAA urged residents not to wait.
"The time to prepare for significant heavy rain and flooding impacts on the Big Island is now, as heavy rain becomes more likely by Thursday and Friday. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible."
Whether Nolo ultimately makes direct landfall remains uncertain. The FOX Forecast Center noted that "it is extremely rare for a major hurricane to come this close to the Hawaiian Islands." But even a near-miss at Category 3 strength would deliver devastating rainfall totals to terrain that has already absorbed heavy punishment this season.
Nolo is not arriving in isolation. Hawaii has already absorbed two significant hurricanes in rapid succession. Last month, Hurricane Lala brushed past the islands and washed away roughly 100 homes, triggered landslides, and caused widespread power outages. Earlier this month, Hurricane Lowell brought damaging winds and heavy rain to Kauai and Niihau, downing trees, tearing up roads, and knocking out power for thousands of residents.
Now a third storm is bearing down, and this one may hit harder than either of its predecessors.
The pattern raises practical questions that the available forecasts do not yet answer. No evacuation orders or emergency declarations from Hawaii state or county officials have been reported in connection with Nolo. It is unclear what recovery progress has been made from Lowell and Lala, or how much capacity local emergency services have left after back-to-back storms.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Polo is spinning separately off Mexico's southwestern coast, adding to an unusually active Pacific season that has now produced at least four named storms of consequence in a compressed window.
The storm's rapid development has compressed the timeline for preparation. Nolo formed on Wednesday. By early Thursday, it had already reached 60 mph sustained winds. Forecasters project it could reach hurricane strength Thursday night and major hurricane status by the weekend.
Heavy rainfall on the Big Island could begin as soon as Thursday night, giving residents less than 24 hours from the time the watch was issued to secure property, stock supplies, and make evacuation decisions if necessary. The rain forecast extends through at least Tuesday morning, September 29, meaning the Big Island could endure nearly five straight days of dangerous precipitation.
The eastern side of the Big Island faces the worst of it. Some forecast models project 19 to 24 inches on that flank alone, with localized totals exceeding 30 inches. On steep volcanic terrain, that volume of water creates flash-flood and mudslide conditions that can move faster than any evacuation.
Hawaii's residents have shown resilience through an extraordinary season. But resilience has limits, and the people living in Nolo's path deserve answers about what state and local officials are doing right now to prepare, not after the water starts rising.
