Iowa’s Joni Ernst might ditch her Senate seat, leaving Republicans scrambling.
Ernst, a two-term senator elected in 2014 to curb government spending, has hired a campaign manager and planned a fall fundraiser, but whispers of retirement grow louder as she weighs her 2026 reelection bid, as Politico reports. Three anonymous Senate Republican sources report rising concern she may step aside, while a fourth claims Ernst admitted last month she’s still undecided. Iowa Democrats, sensing an opening, have candidates like state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. J.D. Scholten already in the race.
Ernst’s campaign raised $1 million in early 2025, a decent but not dazzling sum. Compare that to Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former TV anchor with $2.2 million banked, who two sources say is poised to jump in if Ernst bails. Hinson’s cash stash, though $800,000 shy of Ernst’s, signals a strong GOP bench ready to fight.
Ernst joined the GOP Senate leadership in 2018 after outmaneuvering Nebraska’s Deb Fischer. She aimed higher last year, vying for the No. 3 GOP spot, only to lose to Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton. That defeat, coupled with her indecision, fuels speculation she’s lost her fire.
“Senator Ernst is focused on her work delivering for Iowans,” said Palmer Brigham, Ernst’s spokesperson, touting her push for Trump’s tax cuts and a robust defense bill. Nice words, but they dodge the real question: Is she in or out? The silence screams louder than the spin.
Last year, Ernst insisted she’d run again, but her tune seems to have changed. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, practically begging, said, “I’m doing everything I can to encourage her to run.” Thune’s plea sounds desperate, as if he knows the GOP could lose ground without her.
Ernst, a combat veteran and sexual assault survivor, stirred the pot by questioning Trump’s Defense secretary pick, Pete Hegseth. MAGA loyalists pounced, accusing her of eyeing the Pentagon job herself. She later backed Hegseth, but the episode left a bitter taste among the Trump faithful.
Aligning with Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency in 2025, Ernst led the Senate’s DOGE caucus to slash federal waste. Musk’s plan fizzled after clashing with Trump, leaving Ernst tied to a sinking ship. Her enthusiasm for cost-cutting hasn’t won her many friends lately.
At a town hall, Ernst flubbed a response to Medicaid cut concerns, quipping, “Well, we all are going to die.” The crowd didn’t laugh, and neither did Iowa voters worried about healthcare. That gaffe, however witty in her head, underscores her disconnect from the heartland’s pulse.
Iowa isn’t a Democratic slam-dunk, but the party sees a chance, especially if Trump’s GOP hits turbulence by 2026. Ernst’s potential exit could crack the door wider for Democrats, who are already mobilizing. The stakes are high, and Iowa’s conservative voters deserve clarity.
If Ernst retires, she’d join Thom Tillis, Mitch McConnell, and Tommy Tuberville as the fourth GOP senator to bow out before 2026. Tuberville’s chasing Alabama’s governorship, but Ernst’s plans remain murky. Her indecision risks leaving Iowa Republicans in the lurch.
Thune, hedging his bets, added, “Ultimately that’s a decision she’d have to make. I think she’s moving forward.” Moving forward? Sounds more like stalling, and Iowa conservatives aren’t here for political indecision.
Should Ernst step down, Ashley Hinson’s name dominates the chatter. Her $2.2 million war chest and media savvy make her a formidable contender. Iowa Republicans would rally behind her, but she’d face a tougher fight than Ernst in a shifting political tide.
Ernst’s $9.4 billion spending clawback package is hitting Senate resistance, with even Republicans pushing to scale it back. Her fiscal hawk reputation is taking hits as colleagues balk at her austerity obsession. It’s a tough sell when voters feel the pinch.
Ernst’s legacy -- fighting for leaner government and veterans’ issues -- hangs in the balance. Iowa needs a senator who’s all-in, not one flirting with the exit. Her next move will shape the GOP’s future in the Hawkeye State.
