New York could elect its first Republican governor in two decades, with a new poll showing Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman within striking distance of Governor Kathy Hochul heading into 2026.
Hochul leads Blakeman 47 percent to 43 percent among registered voters, a gap narrow enough to fall within reach of any late-breaking shift in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one. Ten percent of voters remain undecided. The poll, conducted by Red Oak Strategic on behalf of a pro-Blakeman super PAC, paints a picture of a Democratic incumbent weighed down by poor favorability numbers and a Republican challenger buoyed by an enthusiasm gap that cuts sharply in his favor.
If those numbers hold, or tighten further, New York would send a Republican to Albany for the first time since George Pataki left office roughly twenty years ago. The Daily Mail reported that the findings underscore a vulnerability Democrats have struggled to address: Hochul is broadly unpopular, and her own party's voters are not fired up to save her.
Fifty-eight percent of those polled view Hochul unfavorably. Only 38 percent see her in a positive light. Worse for the governor, just 33 percent say she deserves a second full term, a devastating number for any sitting officeholder asking voters for another chance.
Blakeman's profile remains lower statewide. Thirty percent view him favorably, and 23 percent view him unfavorably, leaving a large share of the electorate still forming an opinion. For a challenger, that blank slate is an asset, not a liability. It means voters have not yet decided to reject him, and he has room to define himself on his own terms.
The enthusiasm gap may matter more than any other single data point. Seventy-three percent of Republicans say they are excited about the 2026 election. Among Democrats, that figure drops to 44 percent. In a state where the Democratic registration advantage is enormous, low turnout from the left could erase that structural edge entirely.
Hochul also trails Blakeman among independent voters by 21 points, 54 to 33. Independents decided the last competitive cycle in New York, Hochul beat former Congressman Lee Zeldin by only six points in 2022, a margin that shocked Democrats when traditionally liberal areas lagged during the midterm of Joe Biden's presidency. Blakeman's lead with independents suggests the same dynamic could repeat, or intensify.
The 70-year-old Blakeman launched his gubernatorial campaign last December, calling Hochul a "failure." He has since consolidated Republican support. Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, initially expected to mount a primary challenge, dropped out, and President Trump gave Blakeman his full endorsement. Blakeman attended Game 3 of the NBA Finals alongside the president at Madison Square Garden.
His record in Nassau County reads like a checklist designed to appeal to conservative voters statewide. He pushed through a policy banning transgender athletes from county sports facilities, directed county detectives to work alongside federal authorities in immigration enforcement, created a volunteer law enforcement unit, and signed a local ban on wearing face masks in public, with exceptions for health or religious reasons. New York's shifting political landscape has given those positions broader appeal beyond the traditional Republican base.
Critics have labeled his volunteer law enforcement unit a "militia," but Blakeman has positioned himself as a bulwark against what he describes as the liberal policies of urban Democrats.
Blakeman told Politico that his crossover appeal is already proven:
"In a county that has 110,000 more registered Democrats, I won a landslide victory with a majority of over 36,000 votes. So I think that demonstrates that I have the ability to get votes from people that you need to have on your side if you're going to win a statewide election in New York."
That record of winning in a heavily Democratic county is the core of his electability argument. Nassau County is not a deep-red stronghold, it is a suburban swing jurisdiction where Democrats hold a six-figure registration advantage. Blakeman won it anyway, and won it big.
Hochul, who took over as governor in 2021 after Andrew Cuomo resigned, has not faced a serious intraparty challenge. But her coalition reveals the tension within New York's Democratic Party. In February, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, endorsed Hochul for reelection in an op-ed in The Nation, writing that he had "come to trust Governor Hochul as someone willing to engage in an honest dialogue that leads to results."
Hochul returned the favor, endorsing Mamdani for mayor and praising his partnership. Mamdani has drawn criticism on his own for controversial remarks as mayor, and his ideological alignment with Hochul gives Blakeman an opening to paint the governor as beholden to the progressive wing of her party.
Hochul said of Mamdani's endorsement: "I know that he'll stand strong alongside me as we fight against Donald Trump's attacks on this state." That framing, casting the race as a referendum on Trump rather than on her own record, is a familiar Democratic playbook. Whether it works in 2026 depends on whether voters are more concerned about Washington or about Albany.
The governor does hold one significant structural advantage: money. Hochul's campaign and the state Democratic Party have a combined $43 million to spend. Blakeman's fundraising totals were not disclosed in the poll data, and that cash gap could prove decisive in a state as expensive as New York. Hochul has faced accusations of using the levers of government for political advantage before, and Blakeman will need to close the financial gap or rely on earned media and grassroots energy to compensate.
A few caveats are in order. The poll was commissioned by a pro-Blakeman super PAC, which means the sponsor had every incentive to produce a result that energizes donors and volunteers. Red Oak Strategic conducted the survey among registered voters, not likely voters, a screen that typically favors Democrats in high-turnout states. The poll's sample size, margin of error, and field dates were not disclosed.
But even accounting for those limitations, the broader trajectory is hard for Democrats to dismiss. Kamala Harris carried New York by 12 points in the 2024 presidential election. If Hochul is leading by only four points in a poll of registered voters, a universe that should skew in her favor, the actual race among people who show up could be even tighter.
Hochul barely survived 2022, when Zeldin came within six points in a cycle that caught Democrats flat-footed. Republican pushback against Democratic overreach in Albany has only grown louder since then. Zeldin went on to become EPA Administrator. Stefanik cleared the primary field. And Blakeman now carries Trump's endorsement into a general election where the incumbent's own voters cannot muster much enthusiasm for her.
The self-described "mom governor from Buffalo" has $43 million and a Democratic registration edge that still dwarfs the GOP's. But she also has a 58 percent unfavorability rating, a socialist mayor as her most prominent ally, and a challenger who has already proved he can win where Democrats are supposed to dominate. Progressive legislation coming out of Albany has handed Republicans fresh ammunition with voters who might otherwise stay home.
Money wins a lot of races. But it does not fix a candidate voters have already decided they do not like. If Hochul cannot give New Yorkers a reason to show up beyond "the other side is worse," she may find out that even deep-blue states have a limit.
