Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) is polling at just 21% among likely Republican voters in Texas' 23rd Congressional District, trailing challenger Brandon Herrera by 24 points as fallout from an alleged affair with a congressional aide who later died continues to consume his reelection bid.
A Political Intelligence survey of 543 likely GOP primary voters, conducted Feb. 18 to 20, found Herrera at 45% support compared to Gonzales' 21%, with 26% undecided. The March 3 primary is days away. Former Rep. Francisco "Quico" Canseco and construction executive Keith Barton each drew 4%.
The numbers are brutal across the board. 54% of respondents hold an unfavorable view of Gonzales, against just 24% who are favorable. Herrera's favorables sit at 52%, with only 20% viewing him unfavorably. When asked directly whether knowledge of the affair would affect their vote, 61% said it would make them somewhat or much less likely to support the incumbent. Only 32% said it would make no difference.
The poll was commissioned by Herrera's campaign, which is worth noting. But the margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points, and the underlying facts driving those numbers are not in dispute.
Regina Santos-Aviles, a 35-year-old congressional staffer, lit herself on fire in the backyard of her Uvalde, Texas, home on Sept. 13, 2025. She died the following day in the hospital. Her widower, Adrian Aviles, says he discovered sexually suggestive text messages from Gonzales on his wife's phone in May 2024, roughly 16 months before her death.
Gonzales, a married father of six children and three-term congressman, initially denied the affair allegations after they were first reported by the Daily Mail this past October. Last week, he lashed out at both Herrera and Adrian Aviles, accusing Aviles and his attorney Bobby Barrera of trying to "blackmail" him, the New York Post reported.
On Monday, Aviles released communications he says contradict Gonzales' denials. Aviles and Barrera had been seeking a settlement of up to $300,000 with Gonzales' office under the Congressional Accountability Act for alleged sex harassment and workplace retaliation.
Adrian Aviles did not want any of this to be public. He said as much:
I was trying to remain silent. I did not want this out there. … I wanted all this to just be behind us.
What changed, by his account, was Gonzales calling it blackmail. Aviles told The Post last week that the congressman has shown no accountability:
He lives his life as if nothing happened. He has no remorse. His office never reached out to us and given us any kind of condolences.
Aviles noted that his wife "was not pregnant" and described her as "a completely stable … mentally sane person before all of this." He also publicly asked President Trump to withdraw his endorsement of Gonzales.
His sharpest statement came in defense of his late wife's name:
He will not be allowed to lie about my wife again. … He's already done it twice, and I remained silent because I have an 8-year-old son.
A man is trying to protect his family's dignity. Whatever the legal or political dimensions of this story, that part is not complicated.
For his part, Gonzales is framing the entire situation as a coordinated political attack. He posted on X Sunday:
During my six years in Congress not a single formal complaint has been levied against my office. Now days away from an election, coordinated political attacks reign [sic] in. IT WONT WORK.
He followed that with a more confident assessment of early voting: "Halfway through early voting and the intensity resides w/ TG voters. I'd rather be us than them."
Confidence is free. Polling is not. And the polling says 54% of Republican primary voters in his own district view him unfavorably. When a majority of your own party's electorate has turned against you and the primary is days away, intensity among your remaining supporters is not a survival strategy. It is a consolation prize.
Texas' 23rd Congressional District has been a competitive seat for years, and Republican voters there now face a straightforward choice. Herrera, a YouTuber and firearms enthusiast who nearly unseated Gonzales in a previous cycle, enters March 3 with commanding momentum and broad favorability among the GOP electorate. Even if the race goes to a potential May 26 runoff, the trajectory is clear.
The deeper lesson here is one the Republican base has been enforcing with increasing regularity: character still matters in a primary. Voters are willing to tolerate a lot from their representatives, policy disagreements included, but the combination of personal scandal, an alleged cover-up, and attacks on a grieving widower is a package that breaks through every partisan defense.
Gonzales argues that no formal complaint was ever filed against his office. That may be technically true. But a 35-year-old woman who worked for him is dead. Her husband is raising their son alone. And the congressman's response has been to cry blackmail and post defiant messages on social media.
Republican voters in TX-23 appear to have heard enough.
