California drivers are bracing for another hit at the pump as U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in Iran rattle global oil markets.
The average price of a gallon of regular gas in California stood at $4.643 as of Saturday, up from $4.610 a week prior and $4.260 a month ago. Analysts warn that next week could see dramatic price swings as the full scope of disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies becomes clear.
Governor Gavin Newsom wasted no time finding someone to blame. He posted on X Saturday after the initial strikes in Iran:
"Trump's new war is already rattling markets."
Five words. No policy proposal. No plan to shield his own state's consumers. Just a social media shot at the president while Californians stare down five-dollar gas again.
Brent crude reached a seven-month high on Friday, closing at $72.87. According to reports by The Post, Rystad Energy warns that market fear alone could push prices up by $5 to $10 a barrel. Clayton Seigle of the Center for Strategic & International Studies explained that a broader conflict in Iran could push crude prices above $90 per barrel and U.S. gas prices well above $3 per gallon, according to FOX5.
Iran exports about 1.6 million barrels of oil each day, though U.S. sanctions prevent sales to other countries. Markets are expected to hold relatively steady through the weekend, but next week could see major disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supplies.
For context, U.S. gas prices averaged $2.98 per gallon last week. California's prices already run more than 55% above the national average. That gap isn't because of Iran.
Newsom also offered this in his post:
"Average gas prices in California have stayed below $5 for nearly two years."
That's the boast. Staying below five dollars. In a country where the national average barely cracks three. This is the equivalent of a student celebrating a D-minus because at least it's not an F.
California's gas prices don't need a Middle Eastern conflict to be punishing. They were already climbing before a single bomb dropped. Recent closures of oil refineries in the state have tightened supply. The state's regulatory regime, its carbon cap-and-trade program, its boutique fuel blends, and its layers of taxation create a price floor that most Americans would find staggering.
And Sacramento's solution? State Democrats have proposed a mileage tax that would replace the gas tax with a per-mile fee, potentially costing drivers an extra $228 to $1,026 a year. So if high gas prices don't get you, they'll charge you for the miles instead.
The logic is almost admirable in its consistency: California Democrats have spent years making driving more expensive, and now they want to make sure there's no escape hatch.
There is a legitimate conversation to be had about how geopolitical events affect energy prices. Serious people are having it. Analysts are modeling scenarios. Energy firms are adjusting projections. The question of how sustained conflict could disrupt Iranian oil exports and ripple through crude markets is real and worth examining.
Newsom chose a different path. Rather than address the structural reasons California is uniquely vulnerable to global oil shocks, he reached for the most convenient political weapon available. Blaming the president for "rattling markets" while governing a state whose own policies have made those markets maximally painful for consumers is a remarkable act of misdirection.
California imports vulnerability. It restricts domestic refining capacity, layers on taxes, imposes the most aggressive fuel regulations in the nation, and then acts shocked when a geopolitical tremor sends its prices spiking harder than anywhere else in the country.
The rest of America absorbs the same global oil market. Somehow, they manage to do it at three dollars a gallon.
The coming week will reveal whether the strikes in Iran produce a sustained disruption or a temporary spike. If crude climbs past $90 a barrel, every American will feel it. But Californians will feel it worst, not because of geography, not because of bad luck, but because their state government has spent years ensuring that every upward tick in global energy prices lands harder on their residents than on anyone else's.
Newsom could use this moment to revisit the regulatory architecture that makes California the most expensive place in America to fill a tank. He could push to keep refinery capacity online instead of watching it shrink. He could shelve a mileage tax that would pile new costs on drivers already stretched thin.
He won't. He'll post on X instead.
