Subtropical Storm Josephine is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane early Friday, sending damaging winds, coastal flooding, and giant waves at communities from North Carolina through New England.
The system formed on October 21 after racing up the U.S. East Coast as a large nor’easter, then turned into a hybrid storm over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. The Daily Mail reported that the National Hurricane Center expects Josephine to reach official hurricane strength around 2 a.m. ET Friday.
Coastal flood alerts already stretch along the Atlantic seaboard. North Carolina and Virginia remain under coastal flood warnings through Thursday. New Jersey faces coastal flood advisories. High winds are forecast to hit the New England coast starting October 22 and linger through the weekend.
Mariners in the Atlantic have been told to prepare for waves reaching 34 feet and hurricane-force winds of 75 mph. Those hazards sit well offshore. Onshore, the threat looks different but still serious.
Impacts are expected more than 400 miles from the storm’s center across the Mid-Atlantic, where waves up to 12 feet and potentially deadly rip currents are in the forecast. Beach erosion, coastal flooding, and tropical storm-force winds are on the table for several states through the weekend.
AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva stressed that the “subtropical” label should not lull anyone into complacency.
"When people hear the term subtropical, they may assume it’s a weaker version of a tropical storm, but that’s not necessarily the case,"
DaSilva added that these systems can spread danger far from the core.
"These storms can have broad wind fields that produce dangerous surf and coastal impacts far from the storm’s center. Josephine is a reminder that a storm’s classification doesn’t always tell the full story of its potential impacts."
The National Hurricane Center points to the strongest wind gusts across Long Island, eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts, and the coasts of New Hampshire and Maine. More than 1.5 million people live on Long Island’s eastern side in Suffolk County alone.
National Weather Service officials in New York warned of water pushing inland near the shore.
"Up to one half foot of inundation above ground level [is] expected in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline."
Cape Cod Bay and Boston face high winds and rain through Saturday, with near 100 percent certainty that populated areas there will feel the storm. Life-threatening conditions were flagged for Atlantic coastal communities throughout Thursday as the system brushes the New England coast this weekend.
The National Weather Service told coastal residents and visitors to take extra care near the water. Rip currents and heavy shore break can turn a short walk on the sand into an emergency.
"Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries,"
In New Jersey, coastal flood advisories carried a blunt message for drivers: do not leave vehicles in spots prone to tidal flooding, and do not drive through flood water. Water can be deeper than it looks. A bad decision can wreck a car and put a driver at risk.
Josephine began as a massive nor’easter fed by northeast winds. On Wednesday it broke free from the cold weather front, moved over the Gulf Stream, and built organized thunderstorms around a warmer center. That shift is what pushed it toward hurricane classification.
AccuWeather meteorologists are already watching the next potential cyclone near the Bahamas and Florida next week. If that system reaches tropical storm strength, it would take the name Kyle. For now, the immediate job for East Coast towns runs from the Outer Banks to Maine: heed the flood alerts, stay off flooded roads, and treat the surf as hostile.
Forecast cones and category labels make tidy graphics. Real risk still falls on the people who live along the tide line and the crews who answer the calls when the water rises.
When the National Weather Service posts warnings, the sensible move is to listen, nature does not grade on politics, and neither do 12-foot waves.
