Japan now counts more than 107,000 residents aged 100 or older, a milestone that doubles as a warning sign for a nation whose fertility rate has fallen to its lowest level on record.
The country's Health and Welfare Ministry released figures Tuesday showing 107,677 centenarians living in Japan, up 7,914 from the previous year and past the 100,000 mark for the first time. The announcement, timed to Japan's Sept. 15 Respect the Aged Day, drew praise from Health Minister Kenichiro Ueno, and an immediate pivot to the demographic crisis those numbers help illustrate.
Nearly 88 percent of the centenarians are women. The oldest Japanese woman, 114-year-old Fuyo Kishimoto of Kyoto, was recently recognized for the distinction. Japan's oldest man, 112-year-old Hikaru Kato, lives in Kumamoto in the country's south. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi sends each healthy centenarian a letter and a silver sake cup on Respect the Aged Day, a tradition that now requires more than 100,000 cups.
The growth curve is steep. When Japan began counting centenarians in 1963, it found 153. The count crossed 1,000 in 1981, topped 10,000 in 1998, and has now blown past six figures. Ueno credited progress in medical technology, healthy lifestyles, and diet for the surge, the Associated Press reported.
Ueno told reporters he was pleased by the milestone:
"I'm very pleased that many people are living a long, healthy and active lives."
But the minister did not stop there. He acknowledged the importance of maintaining a sustainable social security system as the population continues to age and decline, a diplomatic way of flagging what the numbers make plain.
Japan's total fertility rate dropped to 1.14 in 2025, a record low. Demographers generally set the replacement rate, the number of children born per woman needed to hold a population steady, at 2.1. Japan is barely past half that threshold, the New York Post noted.
The 2020 census counted 126 million people in Japan. Almost 30 percent were already 65 or older. Experts at the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research project the population will fall to 87 million by 2070, with nearly 40 percent of that smaller total aged 65 or above.
In other words, Japan is gaining centenarians at the same pace it is losing young families, a combination that puts enormous pressure on pensions, health care, and the tax base that funds both.
A survey released last week by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research underscored the scale of the problem. More than 20 percent of single men and women between 18 and 34 said they have no intention of ever marrying. Nearly half of those surveyed said they see no benefit in marriage at all, Breitbart reported.
Ueno pointed to reasons behind the reluctance: the high costs of raising and educating children and the mental and physical burden on working parents. He said the government will continue addressing marriage reluctance and will attempt to reverse the trends driving population decline.
What those attempts look like in practice remains unclear. Ueno offered no specific new programs or policy changes. Japan has tried cash incentives, expanded childcare, and workplace reforms in recent years, yet the fertility rate keeps falling.
Respect the Aged Day is a genuine national holiday, and the centenarian milestone is worth marking. Japanese longevity reflects real achievements in public health, nutrition, and medical care. Few countries can claim anything comparable.
But a society that adds nearly 8,000 centenarians a year while its young adults increasingly reject marriage and parenthood is not on a sustainable path. By 2070, Japan's government projects that fewer than 90 million people will shoulder the costs of a population where four in ten residents are retirement age or older. No tax base and no social security system can absorb that ratio without serious reform, or serious pain.
Americans watching from across the Pacific should take note. The United States' own fertility rate has been falling for years, and the policy debates over entitlement spending, immigration, and workforce participation echo many of the same pressures Japan already faces in sharper form. A country can celebrate its oldest citizens and still ask hard questions about whether anyone is planning for the bill.
Silver sake cups are a fine tradition. A government plan that actually reverses a collapsing birth rate would be a better one.
