Israel’s airstrikes have gutted Iran’s leadership, leaving Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s trusted circle in tatters, as Reuters reports.
Since Friday, Israeli precision strikes killed key Revolutionary Guards commanders, including Hossein Salami, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and Mohammad Kazemi, all linchpins in Khamenei’s 15-20 member inner circle. These men, fiercely loyal to the Islamic Republic’s ideology, advised the 86-year-old leader on critical military and security matters. Their loss exposes Iran’s vulnerability at a time when Western sanctions already fuel economic unrest.
Khamenei, who has ruled since 1989, commands supreme authority over Iran’s armed forces, war declarations, and senior appointments. His inner circle, meeting irregularly at his Tehran compound, shapes decisions with unwavering devotion. Now, with key military advisers gone, his grip on power faces unprecedented strain.
Israel’s strikes didn’t stop at Iran. In September 2024, Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah, a close Khamenei ally, fell to an Israeli airstrike. By December, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, another regional partner, was toppled by rebels, further isolating Iran’s regime.
“The risk of miscalculation to Iran on issues of defence and internal stability is extremely dangerous,” an unnamed source close to Khamenei warned. That’s an understatement -- losing top commanders and allies in months signals a regime teetering on the edge. Iran’s retaliatory missile fire only escalates a conflict it’s ill-equipped to sustain.
Khamenei’s caution, lauded by some, may be his undoing. “He is extremely stubborn but also extremely cautious,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Middle East Institute’s Iran Program. Caution won’t rebuild a shattered military elite or quell growing domestic discontent.
The Revolutionary Guards, directly under Khamenei’s command since 1989, are Iran’s backbone, securing top-tier equipment for land, air, and sea operations. Unlike the regular army, which answers to the elected president, the Guards report solely to Khamenei. Their losses cripple Iran’s internal security and regional ambitions.
Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, a mid-ranking cleric, has risen as a key coordinator within the regime. Seen as a potential successor, Mojtaba’s close ties to the Guards make him a pivotal figure amid this crisis. Yet, even his influence can’t replace the seasoned commanders Israel eliminated.
“Khamenei is pretty well placed to do the basic cost-benefit analysis,” Vatanka claimed, emphasizing regime survival as Khamenei’s priority. Survival, though, looks dicey when your top brass is wiped out and allies are collapsing. Cost-benefit analysis won’t stop Israel’s next strike.
While military advisers took the hit, Khamenei’s political, economic, and diplomatic confidants -- like Mohammad Golpayegani, Ali Akbar Velayati, Kamal Kharazi, and Ali Larijani -- remain unscathed. These men guide Iran’s nuclear disputes and domestic policies, but their influence can’t fill the military void. The regime’s lopsided advisory structure now tilts heavily toward non-military matters.
Ali Asghar Hejazi, Khamenei’s deputy for political security, wields immense power as Iran’s top intelligence official. His role in sensitive security decisions is critical, especially as Israel’s airstrikes expose Iran’s intelligence failures. Hejazi’s survival may be Khamenei’s last line of defense.
Khamenei’s office micromanages both major state decisions and minor initiatives, often overriding the elected president’s authority. This centralized control, while effective in stable times, now risks paralysis without key military voices. The Supreme Leader’s hands-on approach could backfire spectacularly.
Khamenei’s storied past -- imprisoned before the 1979 revolution, maimed by a bomb, and Supreme Leader for over three decades -- shows his resilience. Yet, at 86, with his inner circle hollowed out, resilience alone won’t suffice. Israel’s relentless campaign has exposed cracks in the Islamic Republic’s foundation.
The Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia, once Khamenei’s iron fist, crushed protests in 1999, 2009, and 2022. With the Guards’ leadership decimated, suppressing future unrest -- already brewing due to economic misery -- will be a taller order. Iran’s streets could soon test Khamenei’s weakened regime.
Khamenei values diverse viewpoints, often seeking extra input before deciding, but his remaining advisers face an impossible task. Rebuilding military strength while dodging Israel’s crosshairs and managing domestic turmoil requires more than cautious deliberation. Iran’s Supreme Leader stands at a crossroads, with regime survival hanging by a thread.
