Iran’s alleged plot to assassinate former President Donald Trump could ignite a U.S. invasion that topples the Ayatollah’s regime. The scheme, tied to a 2020 U.S. airstrike, has Tehran playing a dangerous game with America’s resolve, as the U.S. Sun reports. Buckle up -- this isn’t a drill.
John Bolton, Trump’s former national security advisor, claims that Iran wants both him and Trump dead to avenge the 2020 killing of Qasem Soleimani, a top Iranian commander. In November 2023, the U.S. Justice Department charged Farhad Shakeri, a 51-year-old believed to be in Iran, with plotting Trump’s murder on Tehran’s orders. Iran denies it, but the evidence suggests otherwise.
Dr. Kenneth Katzman, a retired Middle East expert who advised Congress for three decades, says Iran’s threats are more about intimidation than action. “Iran knows full well that’s the kind of thing that could bring a massive U.S. intervention,” he warns. Tehran’s bluffing, but it’s a risky bet.
The 2020 U.S. airstrike in Iraq, ordered by Trump, killed Soleimani, a revered figure in Iran’s military elite. Bolton says this put Trump at the top of Iran’s hit list, with himself as a bonus target. Actions have consequences, and Iran’s not over it.
Shakeri’s alleged role in the plot shows Iran’s willingness to escalate tensions. The Justice Department’s charges paint a picture of a regime desperate for revenge but too cunning to act directly. Tehran’s hiding behind proxies, as usual.
Katzman doubts Iran will follow through, citing the catastrophic retaliation it would face. “The retaliation is sure to be dramatic,” he notes. Iran’s leaders aren’t suicidal -- they know a U.S. response would be merciless.
If Iran dared assassinate Trump, Katzman predicts that Tehran’s military headquarters would be reduced to rubble. “IRGC headquarters in Tehran, the besieged headquarters, all the security forces, I’m sure, would be attacked,” he says. The U.S. wouldn’t stop at airstrikes.
A full-scale invasion isn’t off the table. Katzman suggests “U.S. ground operations in Iran” could follow, with the goal to “take the regime out.” Iran’s mullahs would be running for cover.
Analysts like Max Boot estimate a U.S. invasion would require 1.6 million troops, potentially destabilizing the entire Middle East. Iran’s proxy forces could drag neighbors into the chaos. It’s a powder keg waiting for a spark.
Bolton’s public warnings may signal personal fears, as Trump reportedly cut security for some former officials, including him. “He’s trying to highlight that he feels threatened,” Katzman observes. No security detail in a world of Iranian hit squads? Bold move.
Iran’s threats haven’t swayed U.S. policy, despite Tehran’s hopes. “There have been no policy changes by the threat of Iranian assassination attempts,” Katzman says. The regime’s barking, but America’s not biting.
Smaller strikes, like a U.S.-Israel hit on Iran’s nuclear sites, remain possible. Such an attack could cripple Iran’s ambitions without boots on the ground. Precision over chaos -- sounds like a plan.
Katzman questions Iran’s endgame, noting experts are baffled by its strategy. “No one could quite figure out what the percentage is for Iran in actually going ahead with these types of operations,” he says. Threatening a U.S. president for leverage? Amateur hour.
Iran sees intimidation as power, but it’s misreading the room. “That’s the way Iran sees it. I don’t think anybody here necessarily sees it that way,” Katzman explains. Tehran’s posturing hasn’t moved the needle.
The U.S. holds the upper hand, and Iran knows it. A single misstep could unleash a response that ends the regime’s 46-year reign. Tehran’s playing chess with a checkmate looming.
