A forensic psychologist who once helped talk O.J. Simpson into surrendering now says the ransom notes in the Nancy Guthrie disappearance raise more questions than answers, and that the 84-year-old's case likely started as a break-in, not a kidnapping.
Dr. Kris Mohandie, a forensic psychologist who spoke to Fox Digital about the case, said he believes the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie from her home in Tucson, Arizona, was not the sophisticated abduction the ransom letters suggest. Guthrie, the mother of "Today" show host Savannah Guthrie, vanished in late January after doorbell camera footage captured a masked man at her front door. Two ransom notes followed within days, one sent to a local television station, the other to the Guthrie family, but Mohandie told Fox Digital he sees a far simpler explanation behind the crime.
His assessment lands as the Pima County Sheriff's Office recently released both letters in full, hoping the public can help identify the writer through distinctive patterns of word choice and phrasing.
Mohandie did not hold back about what he thinks happened.
"Unfortunately, I think this case is a simple matter of a burglary gone wrong and then attempts to cover things up."
The first ransom note, sent on February 2 to Tucson CBS affiliate KOLD-TV, was addressed to Savannah Guthrie and claimed Nancy was alive and safe. It demanded millions in Bitcoin, included a payment deadline, and referenced two details from the crime scene, Nancy Guthrie's Apple Watch and a broken floodlight. Those details might seem like proof only the perpetrator could know them. Fox News reported the first note contained crime scene details not widely known at the time.
Mohandie disagreed with that reading.
"I don't make much out of those two details. They seem to be details that inadvertently could have gotten to somebody, and so that's not enough for me to say, this is something only the killer would know."
He also flagged the note's inconsistent use of pronouns, shifting between "we" and "I", and the fact that the writer declared the letter a ransom note, a move Mohandie found suspicious rather than convincing.
"There are a lot of things wrong with that ransom note, and it raised a lot of questions for me of veracity."
The second note, sent February 6 to the Guthrie family, told a different and darker story. It claimed Nancy Guthrie had died shortly after being taken, that her death was unintentional, and that she was "buried with nature now." The note included an apology. Just The News reported the letter attributed her death to pre-existing health conditions.
An excerpt from the second note, as released by the sheriff's office, read:
"We did not fully grasp the seriousness of her physical condition. We never intended to hurt her, that was not our intention. She perished shortly after she was taken."
Mohandie questioned why someone who committed a kidnapping would then volunteer that the victim had died and apologize for it. In his view, a genuine kidnapper with ransom leverage would not "out themselves" by confessing the victim's death and expressing remorse. The shift in tone between the two notes, one transactional, one emotional, only deepened his skepticism.
Savannah Guthrie herself has publicly stated she believes the notes are authentic. In a statement responding to the second letter, she said:
"We received your message and we understand. We beg you now to return our mother to us.... This is very valuable to us, and we will pay."
Mohandie is not the only expert raising doubts. Criminal profiler John Kelly, in a separate analysis, concluded the two notes appear to have been written by two different people, one cold and calculating, the other emotional and remorseful. Kelly argued the psychopathic nature of the abduction itself is inconsistent with the apologetic language in the second letter.
Kelly went further than Mohandie in his assessment, telling Fox News:
"Bottom line is, I don't believe they're real."
Savannah Guthrie pushed back on that view directly.
"I tend to believe those are real."
Authorities have not publicly confirmed or denied the notes' authenticity. The FBI initially appeared to take the communications seriously, and KOLD-TV's news director, Jessica Bobula, confirmed the station notified authorities and shared only what the FBI publicly released about the notes. AP News reported that both the station and CNN had knowledge of the notes but withheld details at law enforcement's request to preserve investigative integrity.
Nancy Guthrie, 84, disappeared from her Tucson home on January 31. More than six months have passed. No suspect has been publicly identified. No arrest has been made. Her body has not been recovered. The Pima County Sheriff's Office released the full text of both ransom notes in hopes the public might recognize the writer's distinctive syntax and word choices, a move that suggests investigators have exhausted other avenues, at least for now.
President Donald Trump weighed in on the case, stating he was directing all federal law enforcement to be at the family's and local law enforcement's "complete disposal, IMMEDIATELY." The Washington Examiner reported the second ransom note was sent from the same IP address as the first, a detail that could narrow the investigation but has not yet led to a public break in the case.
Mohandie, for his part, acknowledged that his reading of the evidence could be wrong. Investigators on the ground may reach different conclusions with information the public does not have.
"A good investigation keeps an open mind."
Mohandie built his reputation in part through his role in the O.J. Simpson case, where he appealed to the former NFL star's ego to convince him to surrender to police on June 17, 1994. His willingness to offer a blunt, publicly stated theory, burglary gone wrong, cover-up to follow, stands in contrast to the silence from official investigators, who have released the notes but offered little else in the way of public explanation.
An 84-year-old woman vanished from her home more than half a year ago, and the best lead authorities can offer the public is a pair of letters they aren't sure are real. Families deserve better than that, and so does anyone old enough to wonder whether the people in charge are actually closing in on answers or just hoping someone else does the work for them.
