Xavier Becerra, the former federal health secretary running as a Democrat for California governor, has opened a commanding 25-point lead over Republican Steve Hilton in a new Public Policy Institute of California poll, a margin that, if it holds, would make the November contest one of the most lopsided gubernatorial races in the state's modern history.
The PPIC survey, conducted June 29 through July 6 among 1,003 likely voters, found 61 percent backing Becerra against just 36 percent for Hilton, the ex-Fox News host and former British political strategist who secured President Trump's endorsement earlier this year. The gap represents a dramatic shift from the primary, where Becerra edged Hilton by only a few points under California's top-two system.
For Republicans hoping the Golden State's deep dysfunction, raging wildfires, a corruption-plagued statehouse, soaring costs, might finally crack the Democratic monopoly on Sacramento, the numbers are a cold splash of reality. California remains an overwhelmingly blue state, and even a well-known, Trump-backed candidate faces structural headwinds that no single poll can fully capture but none can wave away.
On June 2, Becerra finished first in the blanket primary with roughly 28.1 percent of the vote. Hilton placed second at about 24.7 percent, advancing both to the November 3 general election regardless of party. Billionaire Tom Steyer, who poured more than $200 million of his own money into the race, finished third and was eliminated.
The primary margins told a competitive story. Pre-primary polling from the VOTER Index survey of 1,200 respondents, conducted May 14, 16, actually showed Hilton leading at 22 percent to Becerra's 21 percent, as Just The News reported. That narrow advantage evaporated once the field cleared.
What happened between June and July? The PPIC data suggests Becerra consolidated nearly all of the Democratic vote that had been scattered across a crowded primary field of 61 candidates. Ninety-three percent of Democratic likely voters now back Becerra. Hilton holds 90 percent of Republicans, a respectable number, but the math in California punishes that parity. Democrats simply outnumber Republicans by a wide margin statewide.
The independent vote seals the problem. Becerra leads among independents 60 percent to 34 percent, a spread almost as wide as the overall gap.
Becerra was not always the front-runner. He surged from single-digit polling after former Congressman Eric Swalwell, once considered the Democratic favorite, resigned from Congress and suspended his campaign following sexual misconduct allegations. That implosion reshaped the entire race.
During a gubernatorial debate, Becerra dodged questions about what he knew regarding the Swalwell allegations, a moment that drew scrutiny but ultimately did not slow his consolidation of the Democratic base.
With Steyer eliminated and Swalwell gone, Becerra had the lane to himself. The PPIC numbers show the consolidation is nearly complete on the Democratic side. Whether voters are enthusiastic about Becerra or simply defaulting to the party label is a question the poll does not answer.
Becerra's own record has not gone unexamined. His tenure as Health and Human Services secretary drew criticism, and a former Biden DOJ spokesperson publicly questioned his fitness to lead California. Those concerns have not yet translated into measurable erosion among Democratic voters.
Hilton has run as a change agent in a state where change is overdue. At his primary night watch party, he told supporters the message was simple. Fox News reported his remarks:
"Change is coming to California, and it's long overdue."
Trump endorsed Hilton in April, calling him "a truly fine man" and blasting Democratic governance in Sacramento. Breitbart reported that Trump wrote California "has gone to Hell" under Newsom's leadership, a sentiment shared by many conservative voters but one that clearly has not penetrated the broader electorate in sufficient numbers.
Hilton campaigned on cutting costs for Californians and attacked the state's notoriously slow vote-counting process. He has been combative on the debate stage, at one point telling Becerra during an exchange: "You should be preparing your criminal defense." But combativeness in debates does not automatically convert to votes in a state where registered Democrats hold a massive enrollment advantage.
If Hilton were to win, he would become the first California Republican to capture the governor's mansion since Arnold Schwarzenegger's 2006 re-election. The PPIC poll suggests that milestone remains a long way off.
The PPIC survey focused heavily on environmental attitudes, and the findings illustrate why Becerra's lead is so durable. Eighty-five percent of likely voters said candidates' positions on environmental issues matter when deciding their vote. Nearly half, 48 percent, called those positions "very important."
The partisan split is revealing. Sixty percent of Democrats rated environmental issues as very important, compared with just 29 percent of Republicans and 44 percent of independents. In a state scarred by devastating wildfires and drought, environmental policy functions as a mobilization tool for the left in ways that work against Republican candidates.
About half of likely voters approved of Governor Newsom's handling of environmental policy. Only about one in four approved of Trump's performance on environmental issues. Those numbers create a headwind for any candidate closely associated with the Trump brand.
Meanwhile, DOJ probes targeting Newsom and his wife have added a layer of political turbulence to the outgoing governor's final months. Newsom is barred from running again due to term limits, but his record, and the investigations swirling around him, remain part of the backdrop against which voters are evaluating his would-be successor.
The PPIC poll also measured voter preferences in U.S. House races, and the results tracked the governor's race closely. Sixty-three percent of likely voters said they would support the Democratic candidate in their local congressional contest, compared with 35 percent for the Republican. Those numbers, the survey noted, remained largely unchanged from earlier PPIC polls this year.
For Republicans hoping that Hilton's candidacy might generate coattail effects in competitive House districts, the data offers little encouragement. The Democratic advantage appears baked into the electorate at every level.
California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks framed the race in national terms. As the Washington Examiner reported, Hicks said Hilton "has wrapped his arms around Donald Trump for the entirety of his career, and now Donald Trump has wrapped his arms around Steve Hilton. The policies of Steve Hilton are out of step with where California voters are."
That framing is predictable from a party chairman, but the poll numbers lend it more weight than Republicans would like.
The PPIC survey covered 1,578 California adults, with the likely-voter subsample at 1,003. It was conducted in both English and Spanish. What the article does not disclose is the poll's margin of error or the precise methodology used to screen likely voters, details that matter when evaluating any 25-point lead.
Neither Becerra nor Hilton has publicly responded to the poll results, at least not in any available reporting. And the survey does not explore the specific policy positions that distinguish the two candidates beyond the environmental frame.
Becerra's own vulnerabilities remain real, even if they are not yet showing up in horse-race numbers. His campaign faces an ethics probe tied to an FBI informant connected to the Newsom corruption case, a thread that could complicate his candidacy if investigators pull hard enough. His HHS record, including scrutiny over his handling of missing children cases, has followed him into the race.
Whether those issues gain traction with voters between now and November 3 depends on factors the poll cannot measure: the quality of Hilton's campaign, the media environment, and whether California's deep structural problems, homelessness, crime, cost of living, break through the environmental framing that currently dominates the conversation.
Hilton's 90 percent hold on Republican voters is strong. His problem is not party loyalty. His problem is that California's Republican registration has been shrinking for years, and a 26-point deficit among independents leaves almost no path to a majority.
Becerra, for his part, is running on the promise to fight Trump, telling supporters he "sued Trump 122 times" as California attorney general "and I won, and won, and won." If elected, he would become California's first Latino governor since 1875, a historic milestone National Review noted when he advanced from the primary.
Four months remain before Election Day. Polls shift. Scandals surface. Campaigns matter. But a 25-point deficit in a state that has not elected a Republican governor in two decades is not a gap that closes on its own.
California's problems are real, and they were made in Sacramento by the same party now asking voters for another turn at the wheel. If Republicans cannot make that case stick even here, it says less about the messenger than about the state of the electorate that keeps choosing more of the same.
