The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, and for the first time in several years, the opening forecast carries a word Gulf Coast residents rarely hear: below-normal. Major forecasting agencies including NOAA and Colorado State University are calling for a subdued season, driven by a combination of Saharan dust, cooler sea surface temperatures in the Main Development Region, and a strengthening El Niño expected to ramp up wind shear across the basin.
That's welcome news for communities still rebuilding from recent storms, including Jamaica, where Hurricane Melissa carved a path of destruction just seven months ago. But "below-normal" is not "no-risk," and the broader tropical picture across the Pacific tells a different story entirely.
As the season opened, massive plumes of Saharan dust were already spreading westward across the Atlantic Ocean, pushing into the Caribbean and the Gulf. FOX Weather reported that the dust is expected to eventually reach the Southeast and potentially parts of the Southern Plains, bringing hazy skies and vivid sunrises and sunsets, but, more importantly, acting as a natural brake on tropical storm formation.
The mechanism is straightforward. Saharan dust carries hot, dry air that creates a more stable atmosphere, making it harder for the disorganized tropical disturbances that seed hurricanes to gain strength. The FOX Forecast Center noted that large dust plumes are spreading directly through the Main Development Region, the stretch of warm Atlantic water where the most dangerous storms typically organize during peak season.
No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic over the next seven days. The MDR is expected to remain relatively quiet for the near future.
The below-normal outlook rests on several competing factors, all working against an active season. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern MDR are running cooler than in recent hyperactive years. A developing El Niño is forecast to strengthen by the peak of the season, and El Niño conditions increase wind shear across the Atlantic Basin, tearing apart tropical systems before they can organize into named storms.
In recent years, the first named storm in the Atlantic has typically formed in June, while the first hurricane has usually developed by August. This year's list carries 21 names. Hurricane names are recycled every six years, meaning names used in 2020 that were not retired will appear again in 2026.
One name conspicuously absent: Melissa. The World Meteorological Organization Hurricane Committee officially retired it after Hurricane Melissa struck Jamaica in October 2025, causing widespread death and destruction. The National Hurricane Center explained that a hurricane name is retired when a storm is so deadly or costly that future use of the name on a different storm would be inappropriate for sensitivity reasons. The World Meteorological Organization selects a replacement.
FOX Weather correspondent Robert Ray is traveling from Montego Bay to Black River, where Hurricane Melissa made landfall, to report on how the community is rebuilding.
While the Atlantic sits quiet, the East Pacific hurricane season is heating up. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas for potential tropical development. The first carries a 30% chance of development over the next seven days. The second, designated Invest 90E, has development chances at 90%.
For context, an "Invest" designation means forecasters have flagged an area of disturbed weather for closer analysis using specialized datasets and computer forecast model guidance. Invest identifiers use a number from 90 to 99 with a suffix, "L" for Atlantic, "E" for East Pacific, or "C" for Central Pacific.
Computer forecast models show Invest 90E organizing over warmer ocean waters by the middle of the week. Waters near Mexico and farther west into the open Pacific are currently running two to three degrees above average, fuel for rapid intensification. One system could bring significant rainfall to portions of Mexico as it organizes off the coast.
The East Pacific hurricane season typically produces 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes each year. This year's Eastern Pacific list carries 24 names.
The Western Pacific, meanwhile, is already running hot. Typhoon Jangmi strengthened into a typhoon over the weekend and sits a few hundred miles west of Guam. The FOX Forecast Center reported that low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures are expected to allow Jangmi to gradually organize while moving northwest over the next several days.
Jangmi first struck Japan's Ryukyu Islands, including Okinawa, where the United States maintains a large military presence across multiple bases, with hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall. Kadena Air Base reported a wind gust of 74 mph. Naha International Airport clocked a gust of 77 mph.
By Tuesday, Jangmi is expected to begin affecting parts of mainland Japan, including Osaka, Hamamatsu, and Tokyo, with wind gusts potentially exceeding 50 mph.
The Western Pacific has had an active start to 2026, with four named storms, one typhoon, and one major typhoon already on the books. The basin typically produces 26 named storms, 16 typhoons, and nine major typhoons each season. In April, Typhoon Sinlaku rapidly intensified into a super typhoon with winds of 175 mph, causing extensive damage across the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam. Winds from Sinlaku roared across Saipan.
For Americans along the Gulf Coast, the Southeast seaboard, and the Caribbean, a below-normal forecast is a reprieve, not a guarantee. It takes only one well-placed storm to turn a "quiet" season into a catastrophe. Jamaica learned that lesson in October 2025.
The combination of Saharan dust, cooler MDR waters, and a strengthening El Niño gives forecasters reason for cautious optimism. But the East Pacific is already churning, the Western Pacific is well ahead of pace, and ocean temperatures near Mexico are running well above average.
Preparedness doesn't care about forecasts. The families still rebuilding in Black River, Jamaica, can tell you that much. A below-normal season means the odds favor you, but odds aren't shelter, and they aren't sandbags.
