Iran’s missile strike on a U.S. air base in Qatar has exposed the Islamic Republic’s growing isolation, as its Arab neighbors watch from the sidelines. The attack, coupled with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, reveals a Middle East fed up with Tehran’s meddling, as NBC News reports. While Arab leaders murmur disapproval, their silence speaks louder than their words.
Iran launched missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Monday, prompting Qatar to intercept them and condemn the violation of its sovereignty, while the U.S. retaliated with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities after Israel’s 10-day bombardment. Arab states, despite criticizing President Donald Trump’s actions, seem quietly content to see Iran’s influence curtailed. This dynamic stems from decades of Iranian proxy warfare and regional ambitions that have alienated its neighbors.
Tehran’s troubles began escalating in 2019, when Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked a Saudi Aramco facility, killing four civilians and disrupting oil operations. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia pointed fingers at Iran, not its proxies, for the drone assault. Such incidents fueled Gulf Arab fears of Iran’s destabilizing reach.
In 2020, Iran’s ballistic missile attack on U.S. bases in Iraq, following the assassination of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, injured 110 American service members. This brazen move showcased Iran’s willingness to confront the U.S. directly. Yet, Arab states, wary of Tehran’s growing boldness, began aligning closer with Israel through the Abraham Accords.
The Accords, a Trump-era triumph, normalized Israel’s ties with Gulf nations, driven by shared concerns over Iran’s push to “export” its 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iran’s proxies, like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, have long threatened regional stability. These groups, alongside militant factions in Iraq and Syria’s Assad regime, amplified Arab unease, especially in countries with Shia minorities.
Hamas, another Iranian proxy, sparked chaos with its Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Israel’s relentless response has since decimated Iranian-aligned groups, slashing threats to its security. Tehran’s once-mighty proxy network is now a shadow of its former self.
Israel’s campaign in Lebanon obliterated Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, assassinated its leaders, and tragically killed thousands of civilians over the past year. “Hezbollah very much feel that they paid an extremely high price,” said Firas Maksad of the Eurasia Group. Yet, Iran’s absence during Lebanon’s suffering has bred resentment, even among Lebanese Shia, who feel abandoned by their supposed patron.
“Iran was nowhere to be seen,” Maksad added, highlighting Tehran’s failure to support its allies. This betrayal has shifted regional sentiment. Lebanon’s new leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, who ousted the Iran-backed Assad regime, now eyes cooperation with the Trump administration and seeks to ease tensions with Israel.
Syria’s Assad regime, another Iranian pillar, collapsed late last year under rebel pressure. Israel’s strikes further eroded Iran’s influence in the region. Arab states, while publicly critical, privately relish the weakening of a regime they’ve long distrusted.
Arab leaders’ muted response to Trump’s strikes reflects their delicate balancing act. “These countries are quietly delighted to see Iran cut down to size,” Maksad noted, but they fear retaliation targeting their soil. This caution underscores their reluctance to openly defy a resurgent Trump administration.
“It speaks volumes about how they are very careful not to cross President Trump,” Maksad said. Arab states, burned by Iran’s proxies, expect U.S. protection if tensions escalate. Their silence is less about loyalty to Iran and more about self-preservation in a volatile region.
“If something happens, they expect the U.S. to safeguard their security,” said Yoel Guzansky of the Institute for National Security Studies. Gulf states view Iran as a wounded lion -- unstable but still dangerous. A chaotic collapse could unleash worse threats, keeping them on edge.
Hezbollah, battered but defiant, claimed Iran is “capable of confronting this aggression and delivering a bitter defeat” to the U.S. and Israel. Such bravado fools no one; Iran’s proxies are crippled, and its regional clout is fading fast. The Middle East is tiring of Tehran’s empty promises.
“They don’t like this regime, but they fear a chaotic and even worse regime,” Guzansky warned, capturing Gulf states’ dilemma. Arab leaders, while critical of Trump’s tactics, see Iran’s weakened state as a chance to curb its revolutionary zeal. Their silence is strategic, not sympathetic.
Iran’s missile strikes and proxy wars have backfired, leaving it isolated as Arab neighbors align with U.S. and Israeli interests. The Abraham Accords and Israel’s decisive blows have reshaped the region, sidelining Tehran’s ambitions. While Arab states play mediator, their quiet approval of Iran’s humbling signals a new Middle Eastern order -- one that rejects woke appeasement of rogue regimes.
