Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina is reportedly holed up in a secret location after a chilling assassination plot came to light, as the BBC reports.
From ongoing protests to military power grabs and whispers of a coup, the island nation is teetering on the edge of chaos as Rajoelina fights to maintain control.
Madagascar, one of the world’s poorest countries with 75% of its people living below the poverty line per World Bank data, has been a powder keg for decades. Since gaining independence in 1960, political uprisings have been a grim routine. Rajoelina himself rose to power in 2009 after protests ousted the sitting president, becoming Africa’s youngest leader at 34.
Fast forward to late September, and the streets of Antananarivo, the capital, erupted with anger over frequent water and power cuts -- hardly surprising when only a third of the population has electricity, according to IMF figures. Young protesters, dubbed “Gen Z Mada,” have led the charge for two weeks, demanding Rajoelina’s resignation over unemployment, corruption, and a crushing cost-of-living crisis.
The response? Brutal, if eyewitness accounts of security forces using live ammo and tear gas -- resulting in a newborn’s death from smoke inhalation -- are to be believed. The UN reports at least 22 deaths and over 100 injuries in the early days, though the government pushes back on those numbers.
Rajoelina, a former DJ and entrepreneur born into wealth, tried to douse the flames by dismissing his entire government and offering concessions. Spoiler: it didn’t work. The man hasn’t been seen publicly since early October, fueling speculation about his grip on power.
By mid-October, things took a darker turn when Rajoelina’s office announced an attempt to oust him, allegedly orchestrated by military figures and politicians. “A group of military personnel and politicians planned to assassinate me,” Rajoelina declared in a live Facebook broadcast, refusing to disclose his whereabouts. Well, if that’s not a wake-up call to clean house, what is?
Adding fuel to the fire, the CAPSAT army unit -- ironically, the same group that helped install Rajoelina in 2009 -- declared itself in charge of all armed forces over a recent weekend. Some of its officers even joined protesters on the streets of the capital. Talk about biting the hand that once fed you.
Rajoelina, speaking from his undisclosed “safe place,” insisted on constitutional order as the path forward. “There is only one way to resolve these issues; that is to respect the constitution in force in the country,” he said. Yet, with soldiers reportedly threatening to seize state TV headquarters, delaying his planned address, one wonders if the constitution is even in play anymore.
By Monday evening, a new Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Demosthene Pikulas, installed by CAPSAT, was at the state TV headquarters to supposedly restore calm, per the presidency. He assured citizens that security forces were maintaining order, but the opposition isn’t buying it. Madagascar’s largest opposition party, TIM, claims CAPSAT is effectively running the show and plans to impeach Rajoelina for abandoning his post.
Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports suggest Rajoelina may have fled the country on a French military aircraft, though French President Emmanuel Macron dodged questions on the matter. Macron did note, “We have a youth that has expressed itself, that is politicized, that wants to live better and that is a very good thing." Fine words, but when military factions are circling, youthful idealism might be the least of anyone’s worries.
Several of Rajoelina’s close allies, including a former prime minister and a prominent businessman, have already hightailed it to Mauritius. If that doesn’t scream “ship sinking,” what does?
Let’s not forget the backdrop: Madagascar’s history of instability isn’t just a footnote -- it’s the whole book. Rajoelina’s own ascent in 2009 came on the heels of mass unrest, and allegations of cronyism and corruption have dogged his tenure ever since.
Now, with the nation spiraling, the question isn’t just whether Rajoelina can hold on, but whether the system itself can survive another round of upheaval. The youth are right to demand better, but swapping one flawed leader for a military junta hardly seems like progress.
From this conservative vantage point, centralized power and progressive promises often crumble under the weight of reality, as Madagascar’s plight shows. Yet, the suffering of its people -- lacking necessities while elites flee -- deserves empathy, not ideology. Let’s hope for a resolution that prioritizes stability over chaos, without sacrificing the voice of a desperate generation.
