President Donald Trump is re-entering the census fight, aiming to reshape America’s political map. On January 20, 2025, he scrapped a Biden-era order that mandated counting all residents, regardless of immigration status, signaling a bold push to exclude non-citizens from congressional apportionment, as Just the News reports. This move reignites a battle that could redefine power in Washington and beyond.
Trump’s plan seeks to alter how the 2030 census counts non-citizens, potentially shrinking the influence of states such as California while boosting red states like Texas. The effort, led by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, could add a citizenship question to distinguish among citizens, legal residents, and unauthorized migrants. It’s a policy that promises to shake up congressional seats, Electoral College votes, and federal funding.
In 2020, Trump’s team tried a similar tack, issuing a July memorandum to exclude non-citizens from apportionment using administrative records. Blue states and immigrant advocacy groups cried foul, claiming it violated the Constitution and scared off immigrant participation. The Supreme Court halted the move in December 2020, calling it premature but dodging the core legal question.
The Supreme Court has never settled whether excluding non-citizens from census apportionment is constitutional. A 2019 ruling rejected a citizenship question over procedural missteps, demanding better justification before further review. Trump’s team, undeterred, sees a fresh chance to push the issue with a GOP-controlled Congress.
White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller is champing at the bit, declaring last month that the census issue is “approaching.” His enthusiasm suggests a strategic play to tilt political power toward citizen-heavy states. Critics, predictably, will call it voter suppression, but supporters argue it restores fairness to representation.
Republican lawmakers are rallying behind the cause, with Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC) and Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN) introducing bills to mandate a citizenship question. These proposals would exclude non-citizens from apportionment counts, a seismic shift from decades of counting all “persons” under the 14th Amendment. The bills face legal hurdles but signal growing GOP momentum.
California, home to 2.6 million illegal aliens per Department of Homeland Security data, stands to lose the most. UC San Diego professor Thad Kousser warns that if trends hold, the state could shed four congressional seats by 2030. Meanwhile, Texas and Florida, with 2.06 million and 560,000 illegal aliens, respectively, could each gain three seats.
In 2023, California’s population shrank by 817,669, with a net outmigration of 341,866 citizens, per the Orange County Register. This exodus amplifies the stakes of Trump’s census push, as fewer citizens could mean less clout in Congress. Progressive sanctuaries might soon regret their open-door policies.
The Commerce Department is eyeing a lawsuit from Republican-led states, filed in January 2025, to justify adding a census question. The data could pinpoint non-citizens for exclusion from apportionment, though not the total census count. It’s a clever workaround, but opponents will likely scream “discrimination” before the ink dries.
A GOP-controlled Congress, unlike the Democrat-led Senate that stalled a similar 2020 House bill, boosts the odds of passing census reform by 2028. Amending the Census Act to redefine “persons” or mandate a citizenship question is on the table. Such a change would rewrite history, prioritizing citizens’ political weight.
Trump’s 2020 memorandum argued that counting non-citizens dilutes citizens’ votes, a point that resonates with his base. Sanctuary cities and blue states countered that it chilled immigrant participation, a claim the Supreme Court didn’t fully address. The argument still smolders, ready to flare up in courtrooms again.
Federal law requires census questions to be submitted to Congress two years before the 2030 count, setting a tight timeline. Trump’s team, with Lutnick at the helm, is already gearing up. The question is whether they can outmaneuver the inevitable legal onslaught from progressive strongholds.
States such as New York and New Jersey, with 540,000 and 440,000 illegal aliens, respectively, also face potential seat losses. The ripple effects could reshape federal funding and Electoral College dynamics for decades. It’s a high-stakes gamble that could cement Republican gains in red states.
Opponents will argue that excluding non-citizens undermines the Constitution’s call to count all “persons.” But supporters see it as a long-overdue correction, ensuring citizens’ voices aren’t drowned out. The debate hinges on whether “persons” includes those here unlawfully -- a question the Supreme Court may finally have to answer.
Trump’s second term is shaping up as a battleground for this census showdown. With a friendly Congress and a seasoned team, the odds of reshaping apportionment are higher than ever. Progressives may wail, but the push to prioritize citizens could redefine America’s political future.
