A historic El Niño is set to flip America's winter snow patterns in 2026-2027, bringing heavy snow to southern states while northern cities see far less than last year.
AccuWeather meteorologists released an updated winter outlook showing El Niño will reverse snow totals across large parts of the country between October 2026 and April 2027. The pattern puts more snow on a dozen states that often run dry and leaves many northern cities with less than half the piles they saw a year earlier.
Daily Mail reporting on the Friday forecast describes a seismic shift driven by abnormally warm Pacific waters that push the jet stream farther south and drag moisture with it.
Twelve states sit in line for above-average snow: California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri. At the same time, parts of more than 30 states, especially across the northern half of the country, are expected to post below-average snow totals.
That split matches the broader seasonal picture already taking shape around a record-strength El Niño and the southward slide of U.S. winter moisture.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill laid out the core storm track in plain terms.
"The primary storm track, particularly in the first part of winter, will be across the southern US and leave many areas in the Plains void of snow."
Major East Coast and Midwest cities that dug out repeatedly last season are now forecast for far lighter accumulations. Boston received nearly 63 inches last winter; the new outlook calls for only 15 to 30 inches by April. New York City saw 43 inches a year ago and is now projected at 10 to 20 inches. Buffalo buried under 92 inches last year could finish with as little as 55 inches, roughly half a normal winter total, and a lower-than-normal chance of a white Christmas.
Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Chicago fall into the same “less than half” category compared with the snow that fell 12 months earlier. Across the Northeast, average daily temperatures are expected to run two to four degrees hotter than a normal winter. Northern Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin could see temperatures more than five degrees higher from December through February 2027.
Those milder readings carry a direct pocketbook effect. AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said heating demand across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast will be much less than in 2025 under the current forecast.
The same El Niño signal already featured in the NOAA winter outlook that tied a super pattern to stormier conditions across the southern United States.
While the North runs light, the interior West and Southwest reverse last year’s drought-like snow season. Salt Lake City managed a record-low 3.7 inches last winter; AccuWeather now forecasts 50 to 65 inches. Denver finished with only 27.3 inches a year ago and is projected at 45 to 55 inches, back toward normal.
Las Vegas sits inside the above-average snowfall zone. The city’s last major snow event came in 2008. Phoenix, Houston, and New Orleans are also flagged for an uncharacteristically harsh and cold winter, a sharp change for places that rarely deal with prolonged freezes or accumulating snow.
Western California and the Sierra Nevada Mountains fall along the same southern storm track that Merrill described, raising the odds of heavier mountain snow even as the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest stay warmer and drier.
Pastelok did not mince words on the scale of the Pacific warming. El Niño emerged this summer. Pacific temperatures are predicted to rise by nearly five degrees Fahrenheit, with the event projected to surpass the landmark winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98.
He stated the case directly.
"This has the potential to be the strongest El Niño on record."
That assessment lines up with separate tracking that has put high odds on a strongest El Niño on record as the super pattern locks in.
Even so, Pastelok warned that a single late storm can still rewrite local outcomes, especially along the East Coast.
"While we are forecasting below-average snow, it only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the East Coast cities,"
He added the timing to watch.
"So that is something we have to watch, especially as we get into late January and February."
East Coast residents already tracking seasonal risks will recognize the same late-window concern raised in earlier coverage of East Coast storm risks for millions.
AccuWeather’s team had previously told the Daily Mail that the record-breaking intensity of this El Niño would keep reshaping U.S. weather patterns through 2027, with potential climate uncertainty extending into 2028. The Friday update simply puts hard snow and temperature numbers on that longer signal.
For households from the Gulf Coast to the northern Plains, the practical takeaway is straightforward: the places that froze and shoveled nonstop last year may catch a break on heating bills and driveway duty, while cities that almost never see a plow could face ice, cold, and unexpected cleanup. Weather still delivers surprises, but the map AccuWeather just drew is the clearest early warning yet of a winter turned upside down.
When the Pacific runs this hot, common sense says prepare for the flip, not the same old forecast.
