Hurricane Nolo remains a powerful Category 4 storm south of Hawaii and could still reach Category 5 strength after dumping heavy rain and sparking a Maui brush fire.
The storm made its closest approach to the islands on Saturday, then pulled away while holding dangerous strength over open water. FOX Weather reported Nolo tracked several hundred miles south of the chain, coming within 140 miles of the Big Island’s southernmost point.
At that closest pass, Nolo was a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds over 100 mph. Heavy rain, flooding, high surf, and strong gusts followed across parts of the state, even though the core stayed offshore.
By early this week the system sat 405 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, packing maximum sustained winds of 155 mph and moving west-northwest at 12 mph. The National Hurricane Center said it could still strengthen later Monday and reach Category 5 as it stays over warmer waters that fuel tropical development.
Nolo did not hold steady power through the weekend. It was downgraded to a Category 1 hurricane Saturday night, then rapidly intensified.
Wind speeds jumped 60 mph in 24 hours as the storm climbed back to Category 4. That kind of rebound leaves little room for complacency, even when a storm’s center stays offshore.
If Nolo reaches Category 5, it would become the fourth Category 5 storm in the Eastern and Central Pacific this season. That would set a record for the most Category 5 storms in a single season in that basin.
The northeast side of the Big Island recorded nearly 18 inches of rain over three days. Flooding closed Highway 11 near Waiohinu as the storm passed to the south.
FOX Weather Senior Correspondent Robert Ray reported the highway shutdown tied to the flooding. Waves of 12 to 20 feet slammed the southern shores of the Big Island, and wind gusts of 70 mph or stronger were recorded across the islands over the weekend.
Those totals were serious. They were also well below the worst-case numbers that had been briefed earlier.
The FOX Forecast Center put it directly:
"Because the storm stayed farther away, the massive rain totals originally forecast, 30 to 40-plus inches, did not come to fruition."
Hawaii dodged the catastrophic inland flooding that had been feared. That outcome mattered. It does not erase the damage and disruption that still hit communities in the storm’s path.
Strong gusts associated with Nolo sparked a fast-moving brush fire near Olowalu Village on Maui on Saturday afternoon. The fire scorched more than 100 acres and was 70 percent contained.
More than 10,000 customers across Maui County were still without power early Monday. Wind, fire, and outages stacked on top of each other while the hurricane remained a regional threat.
Hawaii has seen this pattern before. In 2023, strong, dry winds tied to Hurricane Dora passing well south of the islands helped fuel the Lahaina fire. Distant storms can still punish the islands when gusts and dry fuels line up.
Forecasters now describe Nolo as annular. That structure helps explain why the storm may hold strength longer than a typical hurricane.
The FOX Forecast Center said:
"The hurricane is also now annular, meaning it contains a very large eye with a concentrated area of storms around the center and very few rain bands."
And:
"Annular hurricanes typically weaken slower than traditionally structured hurricanes, and the forecast for Nolo reflects this."
Forecast models indicate Nolo will be a very long-lived hurricane and an eventual typhoon, lasting two-plus weeks in the open Pacific. The track is expected to pass roughly 250 miles west of Kaua'i by Tuesday night.
Kaua'i could still see rain tied to the system from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening before Nolo turns farther away later in the week.
Nolo is the fourth tropical system to affect Hawaii this year. The islands have already absorbed repeated hits from storms tracking south of the chain.
Hurricane Lala passed just 30 miles south of the Big Island in August and dumped 40 inches of rain, with catastrophic flooding and debris flow along Ka'alaiki Road in Naalehu. About a week later, Tropical Storm Moke passed 250 miles south of the Big Island and brought more rain.
Hurricane Lowell later followed a path similar to 1992’s Hurricane Iniki, coming within 50 miles of Kaua'i as a Category 2 storm and leaving extensive wind damage and power outages. Iniki remains Hawaii’s storm of record for destructive power.
That run of systems left residents and local agencies dealing with flooding, surf, wind, fire risk, and outages again and again. Nolo’s offshore track limited the worst rain totals this time. It still closed roads, knocked out power, and lit a brush fire.
Warm water and a rapidly strengthening El Niño have helped feed tropical development across the basin. The National Hurricane Center’s warning that Nolo could still climb to Category 5 is a reminder that the danger does not end the moment a storm’s closest approach is over.
Hawaii got a break from the most extreme rainfall forecast. The season has not given the islands much rest, and a long-lived storm still spinning south of the chain is no reason to let down the guard.
When storm after storm tests the same communities, readiness and clear-eyed forecasts matter more than wishful thinking about the ocean staying quiet.
