A tropical depression that had fallen apart has reformed roughly 300 miles south of Hawaii's Big Island and could strengthen into a major hurricane on a collision course with islands already battered by three tropical systems this season.
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E redeveloped early Wednesday with sustained winds of 35 mph, and forecasters expect it to intensify into Tropical Storm Nolo within hours. The National Hurricane Center warned that rainfall from the system could produce "catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain" across the Big Island and Maui.
The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency issued Flood Watches for five islands, Maui, Lānaʻi, Molokaʻi, Kahoʻolawe, and Hawaiʻi Island, running from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Heavy rain began pushing into the Big Island on Wednesday afternoon, Hawaii time, well ahead of the storm's center.
For residents of the Big Island, the numbers are stark. The NHC's latest advisory projects 15 to 20 inches of rain through Monday, with localized pockets near Hilo on the island's eastern side potentially receiving up to 35 inches. Maui faces 5 to 10 inches and life-threatening flooding of its own.
Hawaii has already endured a brutal storm season. Three tropical systems have struck the islands in recent weeks, including destructive Hurricane Lowell, which left significant damage in its wake.
Favorable environmental conditions across the Central Pacific are expected to fuel the storm's rapid strengthening. A dip in the jet stream is forecast to yank the system sharply northward on Thursday, pulling it toward the Hawaiian island chain and raising the possibility of a rare direct landfall as a major hurricane.
But FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross cautioned that computer and AI forecast models offer wildly different projections for the storm's path. Norcross wrote:
"There is very little consensus on the track that Nolo will take... and how close the core of the system will come to Hawaii before it makes another turn."
That uncertainty is the worst kind for emergency planners. A storm that passes 50 miles offshore delivers a very different blow than one that makes a direct hit, and right now, nobody can say which scenario will play out. The Big Island sits squarely in the cone of concern regardless.
Hurricane Lala, a Category 1 storm that struck in mid-August, offered a preview of how quickly conditions can deteriorate. That system brought heavy rain and strong winds to the Big Island, caused road damage in Pahala and Mountain View, and triggered flooding in Honolulu before pulling away without making landfall. Communities on the Big Island were still digging out when subsequent storms arrived.
If Fifteen-E strengthens into a major hurricane and strikes the islands, it would be the fourth significant tropical system to threaten Hawaii this season, an extraordinary cluster by any historical standard. Direct hurricane landfalls in Hawaii are rare events. The prospect of one arriving on the heels of three prior systems raises serious questions about whether local infrastructure and emergency resources can absorb another major blow.
The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency's flood watch notice urged residents to "avoid low-lying and other areas prone to flooding," a familiar warning for islanders who have heard it repeatedly in recent weeks. After Hurricane Lowell's destruction, state officials told tourists to stay away from Kauai while the island recovered.
No formal hurricane watch or warning had been issued for any Hawaiian island at the time of the initial reporting, though the flood watches signal that emergency agencies are already bracing for severe impacts even before the storm reaches full strength.
Meanwhile, another Pacific storm system is being tracked with an uncertain path that could also aim at the islands, compounding the anxiety for a state that has spent the better part of the season under one weather threat or another.
The NHC's rain projections place the heaviest totals over the eastern portion of the Big Island, centered on Hilo. Thirty-five inches of rain in steep volcanic terrain is a recipe for catastrophic flash floods and mudslides, the kind that close roads, isolate communities, and put lives at immediate risk.
Moisture from Fifteen-E began streaming into the islands ahead of the storm's center on Wednesday afternoon. The rain will arrive first. The wind, potentially at major hurricane force, could follow days later, depending on whether the storm's sharp northward turn brings the core directly over land.
The broader Pacific hurricane season has already tested Hawaii in ways that few recent seasons have matched. Each successive storm has arrived before the last one's damage could be fully repaired, stretching local government capacity and leaving residents to wonder when the cycle will end.
Hawaii's residents deserve clear answers and aggressive preparation from every level of government, not just flood watch notices posted to social media. When a state gets hit by four tropical systems in a single season, the question stops being about the weather and starts being about whether anyone in charge has a plan that matches the scale of the threat.
