A new tropical system designated Tropical Depression Two-C is tracking toward the Big Island of Hawaii, threatening flash floods, mudslides, and dangerous surf as early as this weekend, while more than 10,000 residents still lack electricity from Hurricane Lala.
The depression formed Thursday morning out of what forecasters had been tracking as Invest 90E, an area of disorganized low pressure that crossed into the Central Pacific basin with conditions favorable for strengthening. FOX Weather reported that the system's exact path remains unknown, but models show it moving very close to the Hawaiian Islands, with the Big Island facing the most direct threat. If Two-C strengthens into a tropical storm in the Central Pacific, it would receive the name Moke.
The timing could hardly be worse. Hawaii is still digging out from Hurricane Lala, which struck as a Category 1 storm, dumped more than three feet of rain around the small Big Island community of Nā'ālehu, and washed away sections of Māmalahoa Highway, one of the island's critical roadways. As of early Monday, Nā'ālehu remained cut off, and over 10,000 people across the state were still without power.
Lala itself rapidly intensified to a Category 4 storm on Wednesday before weakening to a Category 2 by the time the FOX Weather report was published on August 17. The damage it left behind is now the baseline that Two-C threatens to worsen.
The FOX Forecast Center identified Sunday as the day of greatest concern. Regardless of where the storm's center tracks, the agency said, the real hazard will come from heavy tropical moisture wrapping around the system's eastern and northern flanks and slamming into the Big Island's windward terrain, the steep, rain-catching slopes that amplify any incoming moisture.
The Forecast Center put it plainly:
"Regardless of the exact center placement, Sunday's biggest threat for the Big Island will center around heavy, tropical moisture wrapping around the eastern and northern sides of 90E, which will push directly into the windward terrain."
That setup carries a serious flash-flood threat, the potential for mudslides on steep ground already saturated by Lala, and rough, dangerous coastal surge beginning late Saturday and extending through Sunday. Widespread power outages are also possible, a grim prospect for communities that have already spent days in the dark.
Two-C is not arriving in a vacuum. Hawaii has faced an extraordinary string of tropical threats this year. El Niño conditions have fueled repeated storm development in the Eastern and Central Pacific, steering system after system toward the islands in a pattern that has tested infrastructure and emergency resources.
Before Lala, forecasters tracked what would become a rare direct-hit threat when Hurricane Fausto bore down on Hawaii earlier in the season. The broader pattern has produced multiple powerful storms churning simultaneously across the Pacific basin.
Lala itself followed a dramatic arc. It began as a potential tropical cyclone that tracked toward Hawaii with a rare landfall threat, then exploded in intensity. Even after passing the islands, it regained Category 3 strength and threatened Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument, one of the world's largest protected marine areas.
Now Two-C adds another chapter. Roads are still impassable. Generators are still running. And the next system is already forming.
Several key details remain unclear. No watches or warnings from government agencies were referenced in connection with Two-C as of the August 17 report. The system's current wind speed and central pressure were not specified, nor was a precise projected track available. FOX Weather acknowledged that the exact path is "currently unknown."
It is also unclear whether the more than 10,000 electricity outages across Hawaii are entirely attributable to Lala or include other causes. And the status of Nā'ālehu, whether the community has been reconnected since "early Monday", was not updated in the report.
What is clear is the risk profile. Saturated ground, damaged roads, compromised power infrastructure, and a population already stretched thin by one hurricane now face a second system with the potential to deliver heavy rain to the same vulnerable terrain.
Hawaii's residents deserve better than back-to-back storms. But they also deserve emergency infrastructure and disaster response that can absorb the hit, and right now, the margins are razor-thin.
