Federal scientists now say there is a greater than 90 percent chance this El Niño becomes "very strong" by winter, and a 69 percent chance it surpasses every El Niño event on record, a prospect one economist warns could make it the costliest ever.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released an updated forecast on Aug. 13 reporting that sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean have climbed more than 3.6 degrees above average, a reading that multiple climate models from North America and abroad agree points toward a historic event. The agency's report projects the warming will continue to strengthen through the end of 2026, with impacts rippling across weather patterns from the American heartland to Southeast Asia. USA TODAY reported the probability figures alongside warnings from scientists inside and outside the federal government.
By the agency's own classification, a "very strong" El Niño sits at the top of its intensity scale. The 69 percent probability of a "historic event" means forecasters believe there is roughly a two-in-three chance this cycle will exceed the strength of every El Niño tracked since 1950, a record that includes the devastating 1997, 98 and 1982, 83 episodes.
Americans who remember those years remember the damage. A 2023 study found the 1982, 83 El Niño produced $4.1 trillion in global income losses. The 1997, 98 event cost roughly $5.7 trillion. Justin Mankin, a Dartmouth geography professor who studies El Niño's economic footprint, offered a blunt assessment via email:
"The current forecasts imply this could be the costliest El Niño on record."
That is not a government official hedging for the cameras. It is an academic looking at the numbers and drawing the obvious conclusion. And the federal government's own probability figures back him up.
Michelle L'Heureux, a physical scientist and ENSO team lead at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, told USA TODAY the pattern is already producing measurable effects around the globe. In an email, she described drier-than-average conditions developing across Indonesia, India, Central America, and the Horn of Africa, alongside wetter-than-average conditions in parts of Chile, all consistent with textbook El Niño behavior for this time of year.
L'Heureux noted that the current development timeline looks normal, not accelerated or unusual in its onset. "I don't see anything atypical about the starting season or potential duration of this El Niño," she wrote. The Climate Prediction Center projects the event will last roughly seven months.
But "normal onset" and "moderate impact" are two very different things. The report itself cautioned that while the odds of El Niño-consistent impacts grow with an event this large, "they are not guaranteed." That is the kind of careful language agencies use when the models are screaming but the bureaucracy demands a hedge. The 90-plus percent probability figure speaks louder than the caveat.
The El Niño pattern has been building toward record territory for weeks, and the latest forecast marks the clearest signal yet that federal scientists expect it to get there.
For the continental United States, the projected impacts follow a familiar geographic split. Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA's lead hurricane seasonal forecaster, laid out the winter outlook in an email:
"El Niño winters are typically warmer across the continental United States, especially from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes."
Rosencrans added that warmth may extend down the West Coast and into the Southeast, though he called those signals "much less certain." The Climate Prediction Center projects wetter-than-average conditions across the southern third of the country and enhanced chances of below-normal precipitation in the northern third.
That split matters for agriculture, energy markets, and infrastructure. A wet southern winter can mean flooding, road closures, and crop damage. A warm, dry northern winter can mean reduced snowpack, lower reservoir levels, and wildfire risk that carries into spring. None of those consequences are hypothetical, they are the documented results of past strong El Niño events, and this one is forecast to be stronger.
The phenomenon has also been fueling intensified storm activity across the Pacific, a pattern that tends to accompany strong El Niño cycles as warmer ocean water feeds tropical systems with more energy.
Climate scientist Daniel Swain, at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, put the situation plainly. "This is not a run-of-the-mill El Niño," AP News reported him saying. Zack Labe, a climate scientist at Climate Central, added that "a strong El Niño would raise the odds of dramatic new climate records over the next 6 to 12 months."
The global dimension is significant. Alvaro Silva, a World Meteorological Organization scientist, said El Niño "will give an extra boost to global temperatures," noting that El Niño years typically produce record-level global heat. The combination of a naturally warming Pacific cycle and existing background warming creates conditions that push temperature readings higher across the board.
The 1997, 98 event that this El Niño may surpass led to 23,000 deaths worldwide, increased poverty rates in affected regions, and cost governments up to $45 billion, according to World Bank figures. Ocean temperatures in key Pacific regions are currently at or near record highs for this time of year.
NOAA itself does not use the terms "Super El Niño" or "Godzilla El Niño" that have circulated in media coverage. The agency prefers the clinical designation "very strong." But the 69 percent probability of exceeding every recorded event since 1950 makes the label almost beside the point. Whatever you call it, the forecast says it is coming.
And the downstream effects are already visible. NOAA has revised its Atlantic hurricane forecast downward as El Niño's wind shear tends to suppress storm formation in the Atlantic basin, even as it energizes Pacific cyclones.
El Niño, Spanish for "The Boy", was first recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, when unusually warm water appeared in the Pacific around Christmas. The name stuck. The science has advanced considerably since then, but the basic mechanism remains the same: a natural warming of seawater in the central and eastern tropical Pacific that reshapes atmospheric circulation patterns worldwide.
The ENSO cycle, the oscillation between El Niño, its cool counterpart La Niña, and neutral conditions, is the primary factor U.S. government scientists weigh when issuing their winter weather forecasts. When the cycle is neutral, as it was in a recent prior winter, forecasters have far less confidence in their seasonal outlooks. NOAA deputy director Mike Halpert acknowledged as much during a neutral year, telling Fox News that "this is not one of our most confident forecasts" and warning of "large swings in temperature and precipitation" driven by short-term patterns like the Arctic Oscillation.
This year is different. A strong El Niño signal gives forecasters a clearer template, and the template points to disruption. Flood and storm risks have been building across both U.S. coasts as the event intensifies.
L'Heureux confirmed the current state of affairs in straightforward terms: "We are currently observing warming in the tropical Pacific consistent with El Niño." She described the impacts already developing in expected regions and noted that the event's progression tracks with historical patterns, even if its projected peak does not.
The Climate Prediction Center's report synthesizes models from multiple countries and institutions. The convergence of those models on a single conclusion, that this event will likely be very strong and may be historically unprecedented, is what drives the eye-catching probability figures.
El Niño's projected seven-month duration means its effects will dominate American weather through the fall and deep into winter 2026, 27. For farmers in the southern plains, homeowners in flood-prone coastal areas, and energy companies planning for winter demand, the forecast is not an abstraction. It is a planning document with a deadline.
The economic stakes are staggering by any historical measure. If the 1982, 83 event cost $4.1 trillion and the 1997, 98 event cost $5.7 trillion, an event that exceeds both in strength arrives in a global economy far more interconnected, and far more exposed to supply-chain disruptions, than either predecessor. Eastern Pacific storm threats have already prompted concern about direct impacts on Hawaii and other Pacific territories.
The Climate Prediction Center hedged, as agencies do, noting that impacts "are not guaranteed" even with an event of this magnitude. Fair enough. But when the federal government's own models put the odds of a record-breaking climate event above two in three, the responsible move is to prepare for it, not to wait for a guarantee that nature never provides.
Washington spends billions reacting to disasters after they arrive. A 90 percent probability and a 69 percent chance of something worse than anything on record ought to be enough to start acting before this one does.
