With one week left before final Primetime Emmy voting begins, a handful of races look all but decided, while a surprising number of marquee categories remain genuinely unpredictable.
Awards forecaster Scott Feinberg laid out his category-by-category projections in The Hollywood Reporter, and the picture that emerges is an Emmy season dominated by three shows: HBO's hospital drama *The Pitt*, Apple TV+'s dark comedy *Widow's Bay*, and HBO's returning favorite *Hacks*. Between them, those three series account for front-runner or top-contender positions in more than a dozen categories, a concentration of strength that leaves much of the rest of the field fighting for scraps.
Feinberg draws a clear line between prediction and advocacy. His forecasts, he writes, aim to project what Television Academy members "will do," not what they "should do." That distinction matters in a year when campaigning has intensified as voting approaches and several races remain coin flips.
Two acting races appear close to locked. Feinberg projects Noah Wyle, nominated for *The Pitt*, as the clear favorite for best actor in a drama series. He puts it bluntly: voters can "probably bet the farm" on Wyle. Mark Ruffalo (*Task*, HBO) and Sterling K. Brown (*Paradise*, Hulu) trail in the projected second and third positions, with Gary Oldman (*Slow Horses*, Apple TV+) and Rufus Sewell (*The Diplomat*, Netflix) rounding out the field.
On the actress side, Rhea Seehorn earns the same level of confidence for her role in Apple TV+'s *Pluribus*. Keri Russell (*The Diplomat*), Chase Infiniti (*The Testaments*, Hulu), Zendaya (*Euphoria*, HBO), and Carrie Coon (*The Gilded Age*, HBO) fill out the category, but Feinberg treats Seehorn's position as near-certain.
The broader entertainment industry has been grappling with questions about what kinds of stories and performers still connect with audiences. Jeff Foxworthy recently argued that Hollywood lost touch with everyday Americans long ago, a charge that Emmy voters, who skew heavily toward industry insiders, have done little to dispel over the years.
If the drama races have clear favorites, the comedy side is a different story. Feinberg identifies best comedy series as one of the cycle's "biggest nailbiters," with *Hacks* and *Widow's Bay* locked in a genuine two-show contest. Both shows also dominate the individual comedy categories beneath the top prize, splitting front-runner status across acting, directing, and writing.
Jean Smart is projected to win best actress in a comedy for *Hacks*, with Lisa Kudrow (*The Comeback*, HBO) in second and Elle Fanning (*Margo's Got Money Troubles*, Apple TV+) in third. Quinta Brunson (*Abbott Elementary*, ABC) and Ayo Edebiri (*The Bear*, FX) round out the field.
Matthew Rhys leads the best actor in a comedy projections for *Widow's Bay*, followed by Jason Segel (*Shrinking*, Apple TV+), Martin Short (*Only Murders in the Building*, Hulu), Steve Carell (*Rooster*, HBO), and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (*Wonder Man*, Disney+).
Harrison Ford, nominated for *Shrinking*, is projected to take best supporting actor in a comedy. Stephen Root (*Widow's Bay*), Nick Offerman (*Margo's Got Money Troubles*), Paul W. Downs (*Hacks*), Michael Urie (*Shrinking*), Tyler James Williams (*Abbott Elementary*), and Colman Domingo (*The Four Seasons*, Netflix) follow behind him.
The supporting actress race in comedy is another toss-up. Feinberg projects Kate O'Flynn (*Widow's Bay*) at the top, edging out last year's winner Hannah Einbinder (*Hacks*). Jessica Williams (*Shrinking*), Janelle James (*Abbott Elementary*), Michelle Pfeiffer (*Margo's Got Money Troubles*), Megan Stalter (*Hacks*), and Dale Dickey (*Widow's Bay*) all have cases to make.
The fame machine that produces these nominees extracts a cost. Jim Parsons has spoken candidly about how *Big Bang Theory* fame left him consumed by obsessive behavior, a reminder that the gold statues come with baggage the ceremony never shows.
No single show dominates the supporting drama races the way *The Pitt* does. In supporting actress, three of the seven nominees, Sepideh Moafi, Katherine LaNasa, and Fiona Dourif, come from the same HBO series. Feinberg projects Moafi to win, with LaNasa (last year's winner) in second and Karolina Wydra (*Pluribus*) in third. Julianne Nicholson (*Paradise*), Allison Janney (*The Diplomat*), Taylor Dearden (*The Pitt*), and Dourif complete the field.
Supporting actor in a drama is equally crowded. Tom Pelphrey (*Task*) gets the top projection, with Patrick Ball (*The Pitt*) in second and Billy Crudup (*The Morning Show*, Apple TV+), a two-time past winner, in third. Jack Lowden (*Slow Horses*), Shawn Hatosy (*The Pitt*), Carlos-Manuel Vesga (*Pluribus*), and Gerran Howell (*The Pitt*) fill out the rest.
Wyle also contends in directing for a drama, where Feinberg sees him battling Vince Gilligan, who directed an episode of *Pluribus*. That dual threat, acting and directing in the same cycle, underscores how central *The Pitt* has become to this year's Emmy conversation.
Best variety series is usually a straightforward call. Not this year. A rule change now allows multiple winners in the category, and Feinberg flags the central question as "how many?" rather than "which one?" The projected contenders include *The Late Show With Stephen Colbert* (CBS), *Last Week Tonight With John Oliver* (HBO), *Saturday Night Live* (NBC), and *Jimmy Kimmel Live!* (ABC).
The variety special categories split between live and pre-recorded. Bad Bunny's Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show (NBC) leads the live side. Taylor Swift's *The Eras Tour, The Final Show* (Disney+) tops the pre-recorded projections, with Dave Chappelle's Netflix special in second, *The Muppet Show* (Disney+) in third, *Wicked: One Wonderful Night* (NBC) in fourth, and Nikki Glaser's *Good Girl* (Hulu) in fifth.
The industry itself is changing fast. AI-generated performers are already being cast in feature films, raising the question of how long these awards will even measure what audiences think they measure.
Feinberg calls several nonfiction categories genuinely unpredictable. Best documentary or nonfiction special is a five-way race where "any of the five could win." The projected order: *Mel Brooks: The 99 Year Old Man!* (HBO), *Marty, Life Is Short* (Netflix, featuring Martin Short), *My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay* (HBO), *John Candy: I Like Me* (Prime Video), and *Ocean With David Attenborough* (Nat Geo).
Best documentary or nonfiction series is equally uncertain. *Sean Combs: The Reckoning* (Netflix) holds the top projection, followed by *Mr. Scorsese* (Apple TV+), with Ken Burns's *The American Revolution* (PBS) projected fourth.
In best actor in a limited or anthology series, Oscar Isaac leads for *Beef* season two (Netflix), with Matthew Rhys also contending for *The Beast in Me*. Best actress in the same category is another open field, Feinberg says any of the five nominees could win.
The hosted nonfiction category features David Letterman (*My Next Guest Needs No Introduction*, Netflix) at the top, Stanley Tucci (*Tucci in Italy*, Nat Geo) in second, and Eugene Levy (*The Reluctant Traveler*, Apple TV+) in third.
Guest acting categories are among the hardest to predict in any Emmy cycle, and Feinberg confirms that pattern holds. Guest actor in a drama is a six-way race where "any of the six could win." Guest actress in a comedy is even wider, seven nominees, all with plausible paths.
Guest actor in a comedy narrows to a two-man contest: Michael J. Fox (*Shrinking*) versus the late Rob Reiner (*The Bear*, FX). That matchup carries obvious sentimental weight on both sides.
Directing for a comedy pits Lucia Aniello (*Hacks*) against Hiro Murai (*Widow's Bay*). Writing for a comedy mirrors the best comedy series race itself, *Hacks* versus *Widow's Bay*, with no clear separation.
The economics of the entertainment business keep shifting beneath these races. Dean Cain has argued that Hollywood's ideological drift is accelerating a broader collapse in the industry's cultural authority, a collapse that declining Emmy viewership numbers have tracked for years.
Feinberg notes that "campaigning is increasing accordingly" as the final voting window approaches. The races he identifies as settled, Wyle for best actor in a drama, Seehorn for best actress, stand out precisely because so few others are. Best comedy series, supporting categories in both drama and comedy, the variety series free-for-all, and nearly every documentary and guest-acting race remain genuinely competitive.
For Television Academy members, the next week means a final wave of screeners, panels, and campaign pitches. For everyone else, it means waiting to see whether the industry rewards the shows Americans actually watch, or, as usual, the ones its own members watch.
Hollywood hands out its trophies every year. Whether the rest of the country still cares enough to tune in is a question no forecaster can answer.
