A tropical system brewing hundreds of miles east-southeast of Hawaii is expected to strengthen into a tropical depression or tropical storm within days, and forecasters warn it could send 16-to-20-foot waves crashing into the islands by late week.
The National Hurricane Center has designated the cluster of disorganized thunderstorms as Invest 93C, a classification that puts the system under formal investigation for tropical development. The NHC gives 93C medium odds of forming over the next two days and a high chance of development within the next week, a timeline that places the Hawaiian Islands squarely in the path of potential impacts before the weekend.
The system is currently nearly stationary, sitting in the Central Pacific basin while it consolidates. But warm ocean waters beneath it could sustain development far longer than the last system to threaten the region. FOX Weather reported that the FOX Forecast Center considers this Hawaii's first legitimate tropical threat since Hurricane Hone brushed just south of the islands as a hurricane in 2024.
Forecasters say a wide range of outcomes remains on the table, but the key variable is straightforward: where 93C's center of circulation settles relative to its thunderstorm activity.
The FOX Forecast Center laid out the two main scenarios plainly:
"If the center stays on the eastern side of thunderstorm activity, this would eventually allow the storm to track closer to the Hawaiian Islands, perhaps even a near landfall."
If instead the center drifts to the western side, a direct landfall grows unlikely, but the islands could still absorb significant impacts from the storm's outer bands and surf. Neither scenario leaves Hawaii untouched.
Should 93C organize enough to earn a name while inside the Central Pacific basin, it would become Tropical Depression Lala under NHC naming conventions. That designation could come within days.
Even if the system's track keeps its core away from the islands, the ocean will not cooperate so neatly. Forecasters project waves of 16 to 20 feet battering Hawaiian coastlines later this week, the kind of swell that turns routine beach conditions into life-threatening hazards for swimmers, surfers, and coastal residents alike.
Surfer and content creator Katlin Kerby joined FOX Weather to discuss deep-water dangers, surf safety, and how to assess storm threats, a timely conversation given the scale of the incoming swell. Waves at that height can reshape shorelines, damage coastal infrastructure, and catch even experienced watermen off guard.
Hawaii has seen this movie before, though not often. Last month, Tropical Storm Fausto tracked toward the islands but ultimately passed well to the north of the state without making landfall. Invest 93C, however, sits on a track that could bring it considerably closer.
The broader pattern behind 93C is no mystery. A strengthening El Niño has superheated the Eastern Pacific basin this season, producing seven named storms, including Hurricane Genevieve, which intensified all the way to Category 5 strength. That kind of output puts Hawaii on a short list of places where the odds of a direct tropical hit climb with each passing week.
The warm waters that El Niño has pumped into the region do more than spawn storms. They sustain them. The FOX Forecast Center noted that 93C could maintain its strength longer than Fausto did, precisely because it is traveling over warmer seas. A system that holds together longer has more time to organize, and more time to threaten land.
Meanwhile, the NHC is also watching a separate disturbance in the western Eastern Pacific, giving it medium odds of development. The FOX Forecast Center says that system poses no threat to land at this time, but its existence underscores just how active the basin has become.
That activity is not random. El Niño has reshaped the seasonal forecast in ways that keep Hawaii in the crosshairs week after week. The state's geographic isolation, which normally shields it from all but the most persistent storms, offers less protection when the entire basin is running hot.
Hurricane Hone's close pass in 2024 served as a reminder that the islands are not immune to direct tropical strikes. Now, barely a season later, residents face another system with the potential to track uncomfortably close. The FOX Forecast Center's language, "a legitimate tropical threat", carries weight in a state where hurricanes remain rare but catastrophic when they arrive.
The El Niño pattern tightening its grip on the Pacific means the threat window is not closing anytime soon. Each new invest, each new named storm, adds to a season that has already outpaced recent norms. For Hawaiian residents watching 93C's track models refresh every six hours, the math is simple: warm water plus an active basin plus a system pointed in their direction equals a week of hard watching.
Specific track details will sharpen as 93C consolidates. Until then, the forecast boils down to two facts: a storm is forming, and it is moving toward Hawaii. Earlier storms this season gave the islands a pass. This one may not.
When the ocean sends 20-foot waves as an opening act, the people living on the shore deserve straight answers, not hedged forecasts delivered after the damage is done.
