Hurricane Fausto is bearing down on the Hawaiian Islands as a weakening but still-dangerous storm, and while its core should pass well to the north, forecasters warn that east-facing shores could see waves as high as 15 feet and life-threatening rip currents.
The storm was packing maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and sitting roughly 670 miles east of Hilo at last advisory, FOX Weather reported. Fausto was moving west at 14 mph with a minimum central pressure of 984 millibars, still a hurricane, but fading from its earlier peak as a Category 2 system. The FOX Forecast Center projects the storm's core will track north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday into Wednesday, arriving as a weakening tropical storm rather than a full-strength hurricane.
That track spares Hawaii a direct hit, but it does not spare the coastline. Swells are already building along east-facing shores and are expected to intensify through Tuesday. In some spots, waves could reach 15 feet, high enough to pose a serious hazard to swimmers, surfers, and anyone near the water. Dangerous rip currents will accompany the surf.
The storm's nearest pass to populated islands is forecast for Wednesday, when it slides closest to Oahu and Kauai. By then, the FOX Forecast Center expects Fausto to be "considerably weaker" than it is now. Outer bands may brush the state, but little rainfall is in the forecast because the storm's center will remain well offshore.
That is good news for an island chain that knows what a direct hurricane strike looks like. But "well offshore" does not mean harmless. The ocean does not need a hurricane overhead to produce deadly conditions at the shoreline. Fifteen-foot surf on east-facing beaches, combined with strong rip currents, can turn a routine beach day into a rescue operation, or worse.
FOX Weather Senior Correspondent Robert Ray is deploying to Hawaii and will report live from the islands on Tuesday as conditions deteriorate along the coast.
Earlier in its life cycle, Fausto was a considerably stronger storm. AP News reported that the hurricane strengthened to Category 2 status with maximum sustained winds of around 105 mph when it was still roughly 1,385 miles east of Hilo. At that point, the National Hurricane Center advised that "interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Fausto."
The New York Post noted that when Fausto was approximately 1,600 miles east of Hilo with sustained winds near 100 mph, the National Hurricane Center warned that "the risk of some impacts from wind and rainfall in the area is increasing, but it's too soon to determine the exact location or potential magnitude." That uncertainty has since resolved in Hawaii's favor, the track now bends north of the islands rather than through them.
Fausto's swells have not been limited to Hawaii. Both AP News and the New York Post reported that the storm generated swells capable of producing life-threatening surf and rip tides along parts of southern California as well, a reminder that large Pacific hurricanes can push dangerous ocean conditions across vast distances even when they never make landfall.
Notably absent from available reporting is any mention of official hurricane or tropical storm watches for the Hawaiian Islands. No emergency declarations, beach closures, or public safety orders from Hawaii state or county authorities appear in the coverage. Whether that reflects confidence in the storm's northward track or simply a gap in reporting is unclear.
Also unaddressed: what happens after Wednesday. Fausto's projected path and intensity beyond its closest approach to Hawaii have not been detailed. The storm is expected to continue weakening, but its longer-term track remains an open question.
Meanwhile, the Pacific is not done producing storms. AP News reported that Tropical Storm Genevieve formed south of Mexico with 50 mph winds and is expected to rapidly intensify, a separate system worth watching as the Pacific hurricane season continues to build.
Hawaii may dodge the worst of Fausto, but 15-foot waves and rip currents do not care about forecast cones, and anyone heading to an east-facing beach this week should care about that.
