Colorado State University's hurricane research team released its first major forecast for the 2026 Atlantic season on Thursday, projecting 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, numbers that fall just below the long-term federal averages and suggest a calmer stretch than many coastal residents have endured in recent years.
The outlook, produced by the university's Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team, pegs overall hurricane activity at roughly 75 percent of the long-term seasonal average. Federal data show a typical season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, storms of Category 3 or higher with winds of at least 111 mph.
A slightly quieter season would be welcome news for residents of Florida, the Gulf Coast, and the Eastern Seaboard. But the researchers themselves warned against complacency. Co-author Michael Bell put the stakes plainly in a statement.
"It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you."
The main reason for the below-average forecast is an anticipated shift in the El Niño, Southern Oscillation cycle. The Climate Prediction Center said it expects El Niño to arrive later this spring or summer, placing a 61 percent chance on its emergence between May and July. If it materializes, El Niño could persist through at least the end of 2026.
El Niño typically increases wind shear over the Atlantic, which disrupts the formation and intensification of tropical systems. That dynamic is the primary factor pushing Colorado State's numbers below the historical baseline.
Still, the forecast carries real uncertainty. Co-author Delián Colón-Burgos told CBS News that current Atlantic sea surface temperature trends are sending what she called "a bit of a mixed signal." Lead author Phil Klotzbach acknowledged the same point at a Thursday news conference.
"There are curveballs that could come our way."
That candor matters. Seasonal forecasts are probability exercises, not guarantees. Another key outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is expected next month, and it may tell a different story depending on how ocean temperatures evolve in the weeks ahead.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season produced 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. No storms made direct landfall in the United States, the first time in a decade the country escaped a direct hit. That statistical luck obscured the real destruction elsewhere.
Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 monster, devastated Jamaica and capped the 2025 season with a brutal reminder that the Caribbean absorbs punishment even when the continental U.S. does not. For the families and communities still rebuilding, "below average" was a meaningless phrase.
That contrast is worth keeping in mind as Americans process the 2026 numbers. A 32 percent chance of a major hurricane striking the U.S. coastline and a 35 percent chance of one hitting the Caribbean are not small odds. One in three is roughly the probability of rolling a one or a two on a die.
Under National Hurricane Center standards, a tropical storm receives a name when its maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph. If winds climb to 74 mph, the system becomes a hurricane. "Major" status begins at 111 mph, Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
The World Meteorological Organization prepares the list of names assigned to each year's storms. In 2026, the first named storm will be called Arthur, followed by Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, and Fay. The list wraps up with Vicky and Wilfred.
The official Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity between August and October. That window means coastal states have roughly six weeks to finalize preparations before the calendar turns.
Colón-Burgos stressed that the forecast's real purpose is not to predict calm but to prompt action. She told CBS News that the early April release date is deliberate.
"Putting this out there in April gets people thinking about what's coming in the next couple of months."
She urged vulnerable communities to "take it seriously," adding that the message of preparation regardless of forecast numbers "is one of the most important things that we want to get across." Her advice was blunt: prepare the same way every season.
"We always recommend, to coastal residents, to prepare the same way for every season."
That counsel deserves more attention than the headline number. Americans living in hurricane-prone areas know that government agencies at every level have struggled with disaster response in recent years. Aging infrastructure in Hawaii has buckled under severe flooding. Deadly high winds in Colorado have overwhelmed emergency responders. Extreme weather does not wait for bureaucracies to catch up.
The broader question of federal readiness matters here, too. Homeland Security resources devoted to disaster coordination have faced political headwinds on Capitol Hill, with ongoing funding disputes leaving some preparedness programs in limbo. A below-average forecast is no excuse for Congress to take its eye off the ball.
Severe weather events around the world, from deadly winter storms in Japan to Caribbean hurricanes, reinforce the same lesson: preparation saves lives, and forecasts only matter if people act on them.
Several unknowns could shift the outlook before June. Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain in flux, and whether El Niño actually arrives on schedule will shape conditions throughout the basin. The Colorado State team plans to update its forecast as new data come in, and NOAA's own projection next month will offer a second data point for emergency planners.
The forecast also does not specify which stretches of the U.S. coastline or Caribbean face the highest risk. That level of detail simply cannot be modeled months in advance. What can be modeled, and what the Colorado State team has modeled for decades, is the broad atmospheric environment. Right now, that environment leans slightly quieter than normal.
Slightly quieter is not quiet. Thirteen named storms still means thirteen chances for a community to face life-threatening wind and water. A forecast is a planning tool, not a promise. The people who treat it as the latter tend to be the ones caught off guard when a single storm rewrites the season.
