Hawaii is preparing for yet another Kona Low storm system expected to deliver heavy rain, strong winds, and potential flash flooding later this week, just weeks after back-to-back storms left homes buried in mud, triggered hundreds of rescues, and caused what the governor called the worst flooding the state has seen in two decades.
The FOX Forecast Center said the next round of rain is expected to organize by midweek, with forecasters expecting a clearer picture of the storm's intensity by Thursday. The system will tap into moisture and strengthen southerly winds across the islands, FOX Weather reported, with rain forecast from Tuesday through Sunday.
The concern is straightforward: the ground across much of Hawaii still cannot absorb significant rainfall. Officials worry that even moderate rain could trigger more flash floods, runoff, and rising streams in regions already devastated by the recent storms. A few weeks of drier weather have done little to change the equation.
For residents still digging out from the last round, the forecast is grim news.
The earlier Kona Low storms dropped staggering amounts of water on the islands. Some areas saw a year's worth of rain totals in just a few days. Kane'ohe and Pu'u Ali'i experienced over 38 inches of rainfall in that span. Communities on Oahu's northern shore, including Waialua and Haleiwa, were evacuated under a Flash Flood Emergency.
Governor Josh Green called it "the worst flood the state had seen in 20 years," comparing it to the 2004 Manoa flood. He estimated that the storms could potentially cost up to $1 billion in damages.
The New York Post reported that nearly 196 people had been rescued as of one Friday evening alone, with additional campsite rescues on Oahu and more than 200 rescues reported overall. More than 200 National Guard members were activated. FEMA coordinated with state officials as more than 20 inches of rain fell in parts of Honolulu County.
Green framed the financial toll bluntly, as the New York Post quoted him:
"We are now beginning to contemplate the reality that this storm could cost over a billion dollars of damage."
That figure accounts for impacts to airports, schools, roads, homes, farms, and a Maui hospital. The damage was not confined to one island or one neighborhood. It was statewide.
Wahiawa resident David Fuga described the scene to FOX Weather Correspondent Robert Ray, who was reporting from Maui:
"Mud up to 5 feet in their homes, lost all of their belongings."
Fuga was talking about his neighbors, people who lost everything in a matter of hours. In Haleiwa, residents shoveled mud from their homes on March 21. At the Church of God Jesus is Alive Fellowship, associate pastor Glenn Duquez carried a lamp into the mud-riddled building to begin cleanup after the fast-moving flood. In Waialua, a disabled vehicle sat in floodwater on the same day.
On Molokai, a major debris slide blocked Kamehameha V Highway. The Hawaii Department of Transportation documented the damage. U.S. Coast Guard helicopter crews and Navy personnel carried out multiple aerial rescues as flooding inundated communities across the islands.
As we previously reported, the twin Kona Lows left a trail of destruction that will take months, if not longer, to fully address.
Authorities said hundreds of homes on Oahu's North Shore were damaged by the earlier flooding, and more than 230 people had to be rescued across the state, AP News reported. Farm losses alone topped at least $17 million.
The ferocity of the storms surprised even meteorologists. A sudden downpour in Honolulu's Manoa Valley dumped two to four inches of rain per hour, turning streets into rapids and sweeping away parked cars. Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi described it in stark terms:
"We had no warning. [It was] a classic rain bomb."
Oahu Emergency Management Agency spokesperson Molly Pierce echoed the sentiment: "Most of us have not seen something that just keeps going like this."
The threat to aging infrastructure, including dams already under strain, only compounds the risk as another storm approaches.
National Weather Service meteorologist Robert Ballard explained the nature of the threat during an earlier Kona Low event. As the Washington Examiner reported, Ballard said Kona Lows "tend to move slowly and so they can keep heavy rain and thundershowers focused over one area for a prolonged amount of time, and they can also cause pretty strong to damaging winds."
That slow movement is precisely what makes the upcoming system so dangerous. When a storm parks itself over saturated ground, the water has nowhere to go but downhill, through neighborhoods, across roads, and into homes.
The FOX Forecast Center said forecasters will have a clearer picture of the approaching storm's intensity by Thursday. Rain is expected to begin by midweek and could persist through Sunday. What remains unclear is exactly which islands and counties will bear the heaviest rainfall, and what specific totals and wind speeds the system will produce.
Those open questions matter enormously to residents who are still cleaning up. In communities like Haleiwa and Waialua, where people lost homes and belongings just weeks ago, the prospect of another round of flooding is not an abstract forecast. It is a direct threat to whatever progress they have managed to make.
The damage estimates from the earlier storms, potentially exceeding $1 billion, already represent a serious fiscal challenge for the state. Another significant weather event could push costs higher and stretch emergency resources thinner.
Hawaii has endured severe weather before. But the pattern of repeated Kona Lows battering the same communities in rapid succession, with saturated ground offering no buffer, presents a compounding problem. Each storm builds on the damage of the last. Each round of flooding erodes not just soil and pavement but the capacity of local governments and families to recover.
Across the country, communities from the Northern Plains to the Pacific have faced punishing weather in recent months. For Hawaii, the question now is whether the islands can absorb another hit, literally and figuratively, before the last one is even cleaned up.
When the ground can't take any more water and the forecast calls for inches of rain, the math is simple. The people living with the consequences deserve better than crossed fingers and a weather briefing on Thursday.
